7 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Olympique de Sousse, Sousse
Full time1 – 1

Final score: ES Sahel 1-1 CS Sfaxien.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% ES Sahel, 26% draw, 48% CS Sfaxien — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CS Sfaxien at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ES Sahel4%Draw92%CS Sfaxien4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁A. Ben Dhiafout: N. Smichi
39'
45+6'
64'
⚽A. Maaloul (pen)
⚽N. Smichi
66'
78'
K. Mondeko Zatu
78'
K. Mondeko Zatu

Line-ups

ES Sahel
  • 2W. Kechrida
  • 6A. Ochigbo
  • 7A. Ben Dhiaf
  • 8O. Abid
  • 10A. Amri
  • 14N. Ferjani
  • 15O. Diakhate
  • 16S. Ben Hessen
  • 20W. Emuwahen
  • 25B. Diarra
  • 30R. Anane
Substitutes
  • 17N. Smichi
  • 18Y. Rjab
  • 19M. Bouslama
  • 22A. Zorgati
  • 26M. Hassine
  • 28K. Eduwo
  • 29M. Senghor
  • 33H. Dagdoug
  • 36R. Gazzeh
Coach: Christian Bracconi
CS Sfaxien
  • 9J. Loulendo
  • 10A. Maaloul
  • 11I. Belwafi
  • 12T. Mutyaba
  • 14J. Mbe
  • 15K. Mondeko Zatu
  • 17M. S. Mhadhebi
  • 19L. Trayi
  • 24H. Mathlouthi
  • 30A. Dahmen
  • 33M. Trabelsi
Substitutes
  • 3M. A. Ben Ali
  • 4Y. Habchia
  • 6M. Absi
  • 7G. Sghaier
  • 18E. Ogbole
  • 20W. Dhouib
  • 22A. Hallaoui
  • 32H. Ouedraogo
  • 35B. N. Mohamed Amine
Coach: Mohamed Kouki

Form going into ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien

ES Sahel

Ligue 1

  • W2-1away to Olympique Béja18 October 2026
  • L0-1CS Hammam-Lif11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to AS Marsa12 September 2026
  • D1-1Jeunesse Sportive Omrane6 September 2026

CS Sfaxien

Ligue 1

  • D0-0ES Tunis29 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer10 October 2026
  • W2-0CA Bizertin20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to US Ben Guerdane16 September 2026

What these results say

  • ES Sahel conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • ES Sahel failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for ES Sahel had two goals or fewer.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for CS Sfaxien had two goals or fewer.
  • CS Sfaxien failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10ES Sahel62228808
8CS Sfaxien724175+210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien

  • 14 May 2026CS Sfaxien 3–1 ES SahelLigue 1
  • 23 November 2025ES Sahel 0–1 CS SfaxienLigue 1
  • 15 May 2025ES Sahel 0–1 CS SfaxienLigue 1
  • 26 January 2025CS Sfaxien 0–1 ES SahelLigue 1
  • 15 June 2024ES Sahel 1–2 CS SfaxienLigue 1
  • 13 April 2024CS Sfaxien 0–0 ES SahelLigue 1

The result against the call

ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for CS Sfaxien at 48% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Maaloul (penalty) 64' for CS Sfaxien, N. Smichi 66' for ES Sahel. Sent off: K. Mondeko Zatu (CS Sfaxien) 78'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ES Sahel a 9.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.2% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 12.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.1%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

For CS Sfaxien the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 29.9% going in: 39.4% after a win, 24.7% after a draw, 15.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.7%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on ES Sahel v CS Sfaxien has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 24% / 24% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is CS Sfaxien's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. ES Sahel win26%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▲ +2
  3. CS Sfaxien win48%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.