7 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Hedi-Enneifer, Le Bardo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: ES Tunis 1-0 US Monastirienne.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% ES Tunis, 25% draw, 24% US Monastirienne — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ES Tunis at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ES Tunis97%Draw3%US Monastirienne0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Belhadj
13'
19'
R. Azzouz
50'
O. Diane
⚽I. Faraj
56'

Line-ups

ES Tunis
  • 32B. Ben Said
  • 6H. Jelassi
  • 12N. Laifi
  • 25R. Chikhaoui
  • 11Y. Belaili
  • 10Lucas Ribeiro
  • 13M. Drager
  • 16J. Castillo
  • 20M. Belhadj
  • 7I. Faraj
  • 27H. Mastouri
Substitutes
  • 1A. Memmiche
  • 28A. Alilet
  • 8H. Rafia
  • 18M. Haj Ali
  • 19A. Jabri
  • 24Y. Becha
  • 31C. Jebali
  • 3E. Fernandez
  • 21A. Konate
Coach: Pablo Franco
US Monastirienne
  • 24A. Slimane
  • 2M. Ghorbel
  • 3Y. Herch
  • 7R. Bouchniba
  • 19R. Boukadida
  • 6O. Diane
  • 13R. Azzouz
  • 20S. Barhoumi
  • 30M. Slama
  • 10Y. Amri
  • 15B. Yacoub
Substitutes
  • 1R. Besbes
  • 12A. Bouzganda
  • 17A. Benga Youssouf
  • 22M. Boughzala
  • 8M. Mehri
  • 11A. Yaakoubi
  • 31A. Boulila
  • 33B. Tsirava
  • 27M. Boussadia
Coach: Romain Folz

Form going into ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne

ES Tunis

Ligue 1

  • D0-0away to CS Sfaxien29 October 2026
  • W3-1Olympique Béja10 October 2026
  • W1-0away to CS Hammam-Lif13 September 2026
  • W2-1AS Marsa6 September 2026

US Monastirienne

Ligue 1

  • W1-0Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to CA Bizertin10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to ES Zarzis16 September 2026
  • D3-3US Ben Guerdane12 September 2026

What these results say

  • ES Tunis went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • ES Tunis won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ES Tunis scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • US Monastirienne went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • US Monastirienne scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2ES Tunis7511117+416
5US Monastirienne733186+212

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne

  • 19 January 2026US Monastirienne 2–1 ES TunisLigue 1
  • 15 August 2025ES Tunis 1–1 US MonastirienneLigue 1
  • 15 May 2025ES Tunis 0–0 US MonastirienneLigue 1
  • 26 January 2025US Monastirienne 0–2 ES TunisLigue 1
  • 15 June 2024ES Tunis 2–0 US MonastirienneLigue 1
  • 14 April 2024US Monastirienne 1–1 ES TunisLigue 1

The result against the call

ES Tunis beat US Monastirienne 1–0. The model had made a win for ES Tunis its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: I. Faraj 56' for ES Tunis.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ES Tunis a 49.7% chance to finish in the top two: 59.1% after a win, 41.2% after a draw, 32.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.1%, 9.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on ES Tunis v US Monastirienne has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 52% / 23% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.

  1. ES Tunis win51%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. US Monastirienne win24%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.