10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Esbjerg vs Aalborg 1. Division prediction & result

Blue Water Arena, Esbjerg
Referee: F. Iriskic
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Esbjerg 3-3 Aalborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Esbjerg, 27% draw, 31% Aalborg — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Esbjerg at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽J. Foss (OG)
⚽J. Ampofoassist: N. Strunck
9'
26'
⚽M. Kubelassist: N. A. Arnorsson
⚽M. Brajanacassist: J. Ampofo
39'
🔁M. Hansenout: O. Boesen
62'
🔁M. Madenout: A. Ahmad
62'
70'
🔁M. Tielemansout: M. Kaasa
70'
🔁M. Kubelout: W. Thomsen
🔁G. Madsenout: L. Vigen
76'
79'
🔁T. Persynout: F. Borsting
85'
🔁K. Normannout: K. John
85'
🔁V. Mollerout: A. Hapnes
🔁J. Ampofoout: N. Strandby
88'
89'
⚽M. Kaasaassist: W. Thomsen
⚽L. Vigenassist: P. Tjornelund
90+2'
O. Boesen
90+4'

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Esbjerg143561724-714
6Aalborg143741719-216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Esbjerg vs Aalborg

  • 21 March 2026Aalborg 1–1 Esbjerg1. Division
  • 19 August 2025Esbjerg 1–0 Aalborg1. Division
  • 30 October 2024Esbjerg 0–2 AalborgDBU Pokalen
  • 30 June 2021Aalborg 0–0 EsbjergFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 August 2020Esbjerg 2–1 AalborgFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Esbjerg and Aalborg drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Esbjerg at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Foss (own goal) 7' for Aalborg, J. Ampofo 9' for Esbjerg, M. Kubel 26' for Aalborg, M. Brajanac 39' for Esbjerg, M. Kaasa 89' for Aalborg, L. Vigen 90+2' for Esbjerg.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Esbjerg a 68.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 60.4% after a win, 73.6% after a draw, 78.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 73.6%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

For Aalborg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.2% going in: 10.1% after a win, 17.6% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.6%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Esbjerg v Aalborg has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Esbjerg's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Esbjerg win42%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Aalborg win31%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.