10 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Hobro vs Kolding IF 1. Division prediction & result

DS Arena, Hobro
Referee: M. Thomsen
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Hobro 1-1 Kolding IF.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Hobro, 29% draw, 29% Kolding IF — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hobro at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hobro0%Draw6%Kolding IF94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

C. Enemark
13'
14'
⚽F. Lesniak
45+2'
L. Laursen
46'
🔁A. Noragerout: M. Doj
65'
🔁T. Augustinus-Jensenout: M. Lynge
65'
🔁S. Yatekeout: I. Niare
🔁O. Dorphout: M. Jacobsen
70'
🔁A. Nosheout: O. Meedom
70'
75'
🔁A. Mannehout: M. Soomets
77'
L. Laursen
77'
L. Laursen
80'
🔁D. Johannessonout: J. Hansen
🔁M. Pedersenout: O. Obasi
80'
F. Christensen
82'
82'
M. Doj
🔁R. Haugeout: A. Breum
89'
⚽F. Christensenassist: C. Enemark
90+3'

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Hobro144461624-816
9Kolding IF143651720-315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hobro vs Kolding IF

  • 6 March 2026Kolding IF 2–1 Hobro1. Division
  • 28 September 2025Hobro 2–2 Kolding IF1. Division
  • 14 March 2025Kolding IF 1–0 Hobro1. Division
  • 20 September 2024Hobro 1–0 Kolding IF1. Division
  • 17 May 2024Kolding IF 2–1 Hobro1. Division

The result against the call

Hobro and Kolding IF drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Hobro at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: F. Lesniak 14' for Kolding IF, F. Christensen 90+3' for Hobro. Sent off: L. Laursen (Kolding IF) 77'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hobro a 19.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.4% after a win, 22.0% after a draw, 29.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.0%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

For Kolding IF the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.0% going in: 29.1% after a win, 40.6% after a draw, 50.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 40.6%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hobro v Kolding IF has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Hobro's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Hobro win42%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Kolding IF win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.