10 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Hillerød vs FC Fredericia 1. Division prediction & result

Helsingor Stadion, Helsingor
Referee: P. Gammelholm
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Hillerød 0-2 FC Fredericia.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Hillerød, 27% draw, 42% FC Fredericia — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Fredericia at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hillerød0%Draw1%FC Fredericia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽F. Rieperassist: B. Bang-Kittilsen
45+1'
⚽A. Bondergaardassist: W. Madsen
🔁F. Hogh Jensenout: J. Sigurdsson
46'
🔁M. Mouritzout: N. Schmidt
46'
🔁R. Corluout: H. Sulemana
46'
N. Schmidt
57'
🔁S. Opokuout: M. Munck
60'
60'
🔁B. Bang-Kittilsenout: C. Jorgensen
O. Lauritsen
65'
71'
🔁W. Madsenout: A. Dahl
71'
🔁J. Lindekildeout: E. Hansborg
71'
🔁A. Nygaardout: A. Pyndt
🔁S. Larsenout: W. Glindtvad
75'
83'
D. Haarbo
85'
🔁A. Bondergaardout: N. Thomsen

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Hillerød144371821-315
3FC Fredericia146532110+1123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hillerød vs FC Fredericia

  • 7 March 2025FC Fredericia 0–2 Hillerød1. Division
  • 23 September 2024Hillerød 0–3 FC Fredericia1. Division
  • 20 October 2023Hillerød 1–1 FC Fredericia1. Division
  • 11 August 2023FC Fredericia 3–2 Hillerød1. Division
  • 26 May 2023FC Fredericia 4–0 Hillerød1. Division

The result against the call

FC Fredericia won 2–0 at Hillerød. The model had made a win for FC Fredericia its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: F. Rieper 15' for FC Fredericia, A. Bondergaard 45+1' for FC Fredericia.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hillerød a 33.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.4% after a win, 33.5% after a draw, 40.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.3%, 7.3 points higher than before the match.

For FC Fredericia the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 81.0% going in: 88.3% after a win, 80.1% after a draw, 73.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.3%, 7.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hillerød v FC Fredericia has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 31% / 27% / 42%: the biggest move is FC Fredericia's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Hillerød win31%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. FC Fredericia win42%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.