Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Esteghlal FC Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Esteghlal Khuzestan 2-2 Esteghlal FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Esteghlal Khuzestan, 28% draw, 49% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Persian Gulf Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Esteghlal FC at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 78M. A. Rezaei
- 75F. Jafari
- 15A. Karami
- 44S. M. Ahle
- 77M. Ahmadi
- 12E. Sazegari
- 16A. Sharafi
- 34J. Zergani
- 45O. Mohammadi
- 7A. Rostami
- 23A. Farhadi
- 13M. Mousavi
- 76H. Farabbasi
- 2S. Hardani
- 4R. Cheshmi
- 6S. Fallah
- 7J. Asani
- 8A. Razzaghinia
- 9M. Azadi
- 10J. Masharipov
- 27H. Goudarzi
- 33A. Aghasi
- 80M. Eslami
- 5R. Ashurmatov
- 11S. Saharkhizan
- 15A. Zamani
- 18A. Zoleikhaei
- 26M. G. Heydari
- 40N. Ahoora
- 44I. Ebrahimi
- 60S. Hosseinifard
- 87E. Gholizadeh
Form going into Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D0-0away to ZOB Ahan30 October 2026
- W2-0Shams Azar Qazvin25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Kheybar Khorramabad18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Gol Gohar8 October 2026
Esteghlal FC
Persian Gulf Pro League
- D1-1away to Chadormalu SC23 October 2026
- W1-0Gol Gohar19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tractor Sazi8 October 2026
- W1-0Paykan10 September 2026
What these results say
- Esteghlal Khuzestan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Esteghlal FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Esteghlal FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Esteghlal FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 11 |
| 5 | Esteghlal FC | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Esteghlal FC
- 27 January 2026Esteghlal FC 1–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 12 September 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 January 2025Esteghlal FC 2–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 29 August 2024Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 8 March 2024Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 28 August 2023Esteghlal FC 1–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
The result against the call
Esteghlal Khuzestan and Esteghlal FC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Esteghlal FC at 49% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Hardani 64' for Esteghlal FC, M. Mousavi 88' for Esteghlal Khuzestan, A. Rostami 90+5' for Esteghlal Khuzestan, S. Hardani 90+12' for Esteghlal FC.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Esteghlal Khuzestan a 42.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 0.0% after a win, 4.5% after a draw, 76.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.5%, 38.2 points lower than before the match.
For Esteghlal FC the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 50.2% going in: 73.5% after a win, 42.3% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 42.3%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Esteghlal Khuzestan v Esteghlal FC has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 20% / 27% / 53% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 23% / 28% / 49%: the biggest move is Esteghlal FC's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Esteghlal Khuzestan win23%▲ +3
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Esteghlal FC win49%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.