Paykan vs Nassaji Mazandaran Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Paykan 1-1 Nassaji Mazandaran.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Paykan, 29% draw, 26% Nassaji Mazandaran — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Paykan at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1H. Pourhamidi
- 2A. Gholami
- 5M. Bagheri
- 6S. Mohebi
- 7H. Ahmadi
- 10R. Shekari
- 11F. Amiri
- 61J. Asadi
- 66A. Dehghan
- 72H. Shoushtari
- 77E. Jamshidi
- S. Nariman
- 88E. Hadian
- 70I. Karami
- 13A. Abbasi
- 29M. Mashayekh
- 15M. Sayyar
- 14F. Bagheri
- 55A. Fathi
- 80M. Hakimzadeh
- 22O. Amiri
- 2A. Koohi
- 3H. Rabizadeh
- 72M. Hosseinzadehfard
- 25I. Akbari
- 6A. Sarabadani
- 23S. Bousabih
- 9J. Aghaeipour
- 27A. Aarabi
- 8A. Sadeghi
- 24A. Nasiri
Form going into Paykan vs Nassaji Mazandaran
Paykan
Persian Gulf Pro League
- W3-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak31 October 2026
- D1-1Malavan25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Fajr Sepasi19 October 2026
- D1-1Shams Azar Qazvin10 October 2026
Nassaji Mazandaran
Persian Gulf Pro League
- L0-1Persepolis FC31 October 2026
- D2-2Fajr Sepasi25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Foolad FC18 October 2026
- D1-1ZOB Ahan8 October 2026
What these results say
- Paykan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Paykan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Paykan scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nassaji Mazandaran did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Nassaji Mazandaran conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Nassaji Mazandaran had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Paykan | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paykan vs Nassaji Mazandaran
- 15 February 2024Paykan 1–1 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 9 August 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 1–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 April 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 3–0 PaykanHazfi Cup
- 7 February 2023Nassaji Mazandaran 1–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 August 2022Paykan 0–0 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
- 6 March 2022Paykan 0–1 Nassaji MazandaranPersian Gulf Pro League
The result against the call
Paykan and Nassaji Mazandaran drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Paykan at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Aghaeipour 21' for Nassaji Mazandaran, M. Sayyar 90+5' for Paykan.
How the call on Paykan v Nassaji Mazandaran has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 39% / 31% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Paykan's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Paykan win45%▲ +6
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Nassaji Mazandaran win26%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.