7 November 2026, 21:30 UTC

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra
Referee: Kleber Andres Aroca Miranda
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Leones del Norte 1-1 Guayaquil City FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Leones del Norte, 27% draw, 26% Guayaquil City FC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Leones del Norte at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Leones del Norte4%Draw92%Guayaquil City FC4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Miller Bolaños
⚽Cristhian Solanoassist: Patricio Madero
17'
T. Coppo
21'
Jordan Eduardo Morán Cortez
26'
27'
⚽Erick Patricio Ladines Calvacheassist: Miller Bolaños
M. Córdoba
34'
37'
R. Arias
Emiliano Griffa
44'
Martín Caramuto
57'
64'
🔁P. Gonzálezout: Anderson Naula
64'
🔁Pablo Mancillaout: S Laurino
🔁Segundo Portocarreroout: Maiky de la Cruz
77'
77'
🔁Miller Bolañosout: Diego Dorregaray
77'
🔁Junior Ayoviout: Romario Caicedo
89'
🔁Edinson Meroout: Kevin Sambonino
🔁T. Coppoout: Gian Franco Padilla Lastra
89'
🔁Jordan Eduardo Morán Cortezout: Elian Pepinos
90+2'

Match stats — Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC

52%Possession48%
37Shots7
4On target1
9Corners1
2.61xG0.66

Goals against chances

Leones del Norte1 from 2.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Guayaquil City FC1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Leones del Norte 4-2-3-1
  • 45M. RamírezG
  • 7M. LuqueD
  • 23N. MonserratD
  • 2J. MoránD
  • 34S. PortocarreroD
  • 5T. CoppoM
  • 6Emiliano GriffaM
  • 11M. CaramutoM
  • 29P. MaderoM
  • 99C. SolanoM
  • 40Juan Luis Anangonó LeónF
Substitutes
  • 32A. AguasD
  • 17T. AmiliviaF
  • 18J. ArellanoD
  • 22J. ArroyoG
  • 50Miguel Yordan Caicedo OrobioD
  • 14A. RosalesD
  • 25B. KreimanD
  • 31G. PadillaD
  • 19O. PepinosM
Coach: M. Córdoba
Guayaquil City FC 5-3-2
  • 1G. NapaG
  • 17J. AyoviD
  • 3Y. RodríguezD
  • 29J. QuiñónezD
  • 4E. LadinesD
  • 6R. AriasD
  • 80P. GonzálezM
  • 14D. ArroyoM
  • 70P. MancillaM
  • 23M. BolañosF
  • 11E. MeroF
Substitutes
  • 28J. VivarF
  • 15K. SamboninoM
  • 30J. PinosG
  • 9M. PalmaF
  • 12Rodrigo Ramiro Perea SalazarG
  • 7J. CaicedoF
  • 33R. CaicedoD
  • 51E. CabezasD
  • 21D. DorregarayF
Coach: P. Gavilánez

Form going into Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC

Leones del Norte

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Emelec31 October 2026
  • W4-1Libertad25 October 2026
  • L1-3Emelec18 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Libertad9 October 2026

Guayaquil City FC

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Libertad1 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Emelec25 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Libertad17 October 2026
  • W3-2Emelec10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Leones del Norte scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Leones del Norte conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Leones del Norte had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC

  • 19 September 2026Guayaquil City FC 1–1 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
  • 23 July 2026Leones del Norte 1–1 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
  • 23 March 2026Guayaquil City FC 0–0 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
  • 29 October 2025Leones del Norte 0–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B
  • 27 August 2025Guayaquil City FC 2–1 Leones del NorteLiga Pro Serie B
  • 23 July 2025Leones del Norte 2–1 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B

Leading scorers: Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC

Leones del Norte

GoalsAssists

  • Juan Luis Anangonó León111

Guayaquil City FC

GoalsAssists

  • E. Mero135
  • D. Dorregaray92

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Leones del Norte at 47% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Cristhian Solano 17' for Leones del Norte, Erick Patricio Ladines Calvache 27' for Guayaquil City FC. Sent off: M. Córdoba (Leones del Norte) 34'. On expected goals it finished 2.61–0.66.

How the call on Leones del Norte v Guayaquil City FC has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Leones del Norte's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Leones del Norte win47%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Guayaquil City FC win26%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.