Libertad vs Emelec Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Libertad 0-1 Emelec.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Libertad, 25% draw, 20% Emelec — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Libertad at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Libertad vs Emelec
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CabezasG
- 6B. CaicedoD
- 5C. GruezoD
- 19O. QuiñónezD
- 17E. PattaM
- 30J. BravoM
- 63C. ValenciaM
- 20J. RodríguezM
- 70Vilinton Germán Branda MerlínF
- 9E. CaicedoF
- 10G. CortézF
- 23J. GuisamanoM
- 25M. LucasD
- 2R. MorinigoD
- 7Carlos Alfredo Orejuela QuiñónezM
- 80X. PinedaM
- 18Yerlin QuinonezD
- 52A. BaoG
- 11H. BatallaF
- 8Stick Carlos Castro PalmaM
- 12P. OrtízG
- 13Luis Fernando Gómez AnguloD
- 27F. LeónD
- 2A. LeguizamónD
- 3I. GuerricoD
- 19J. RuízM
- 6V. GriffithM
- 21J. CevallosM
- 59Reixon SayaM
- 7L. KlimowiczF
- 11S. ArceF
- 26I. CueroM
- 99Alexander ArboledaD
- 80O. HerreraD
- 30Madison Ariel Mina IbarraD
- 5A. MinaM
- 8G. NápoliM
- 10F. PizziniF
- 4E. SeguraD
- 28B. TobarM
Form going into Libertad vs Emelec
Libertad
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Guayaquil City FC1 November 2026
- L1-4away to Leones del Norte25 October 2026
- W4-0Guayaquil City FC17 October 2026
- W3-0Leones del Norte9 October 2026
Emelec
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Leones del Norte31 October 2026
- L0-1Guayaquil City FC25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Leones del Norte18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Guayaquil City FC10 October 2026
What these results say
- Libertad scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Libertad kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Libertad had three goals or more.
- Emelec conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Emelec failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Libertad vs Emelec
- 20 September 2026Emelec 1–2 LibertadLiga Pro
- 4 September 2026Libertad 1–1 EmelecLiga Pro
- 10 May 2026Emelec 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
- 3 August 2025Libertad 1–2 EmelecLiga Pro
- 12 April 2025Emelec 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
- 30 November 2024Libertad 2–1 EmelecLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Libertad and Emelec
Libertad
GoalsAssists
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín132
- G. Cortéz65
Emelec
GoalsAssists
- R. Carrillo133
- L. Klimowicz62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Emelec won 1–0 at Libertad. The model had leaned towards a win for Libertad at 55% and given a win for Emelec 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Teodoro Arce 54' for Emelec. On expected goals it finished 0.72–2.27.