Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 2-2 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Philadelphia Union, 23% draw, 24% Charlotte — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Philadelphia Union at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 21D. Jean-JacquesM
- 4J. LukićM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiF
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 16B. BenderM
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 76A. RickG
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 28A. AnelloF
- 23E. AlladohF
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 14N. ByrneD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 23D. SchneggD
- 28D. DianiM
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 16Pep BielM
- 37R. AlokoF
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 10A. Saint-MaximinF
- 13B. BronicoM
- 35Will ClearyD
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 21T. MillerG
- 4A. PrivettD
- 3T. ReamD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 11L. AbadaF
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Chicago Fire15 October 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 October 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
Charlotte
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Columbus Crew14 October 2026
- W3-2FC Dallas10 October 2026
- L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
- W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
- D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
- Charlotte conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 50 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 66 | 51 | +15 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
- 4 April 2026Charlotte 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Charlotte 2–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 14 June 2025Philadelphia Union 2–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 28 July 2024Philadelphia Union 1–0 CharlotteLeagues Cup
- 22 June 2024Philadelphia Union 0–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2024Charlotte 0–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Charlotte
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union and Charlotte drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Philadelphia Union at 53% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Milan Iloski (penalty) 24' for Philadelphia Union, Rodolfo Aloko 48' for Charlotte, Idan Toklomati Jorno 62' for Charlotte, Bruno Damiani 73' for Philadelphia Union. On expected goals it finished 2.64–1.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Philadelphia Union a 43.3% chance to finish in the top four: 58.6% after a win, 31.3% after a draw, 14.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 31.3%, 12 points lower than before the match.
For Charlotte the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 33.8% going in: 65.0% after a win, 38.9% after a draw, 18.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.9%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Philadelphia Union v Charlotte has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is Philadelphia Union's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Philadelphia Union win53%▲ +7
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Charlotte win24%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.