Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Şamaxı FK 3-2 Safa Baku.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Şamaxı FK, 28% draw, 17% Safa Baku — fair odds of 1.82, 3.57 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Şamaxı FK at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Ricardo Fernandes
- 10E. Adilkhanov
- 97O. Mammadov
- 13R. Apolinario
- 19A. Shuaibu
- 52A. Moumini
- 3Jota
- 5E. Rustamov
- 4R. F. Pereira Pacheco
- 25F. Marques
- 11A. Bouali
- 62A. Seyiahmadov
- 96N. Qarazoglu
- 80H. Ismayilov
- 7E. Suleymanov
- 17S. Muradly
- 8D. Dego
- 14U. Cahangirov
- 2F. Xeyrullayev
- 77O. Tahmazli
- 12A. Mustabazada
- 42E. Cafarov
- 5A. Agcabayov
- 55R. Huseynli
- 6F. Yusifli
- 28M. Musayev
- 10D. Mertens
- 18B. Dansoko
- 17M. Guel
- 11A. Dragu
- 34C. Mamengi
- 99M. Huseynov
- 97Tiago Silva
- 3T. Quliyev
- 23N. Aliyev
- 21I. Zulfugarli
- 83N. Quliyev
- 4M. Jarjue
- 8V. Pop
- 9Luis Felipe
Form going into Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Premyer Liqa
- D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026
Safa Baku
Premyer Liqa
- L0-1Turan11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Şamaxı FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Şamaxı FK beat Safa Baku 3–2. The model had made a win for Şamaxı FK its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Cafarov 5' for Safa Baku, R. Huseynli (penalty) 56' for Safa Baku, Jota 65' for Şamaxı FK, H. Ismayilov 81' for Şamaxı FK, R. Apolinario (penalty) 90+5' for Şamaxı FK.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Şamaxı FK a 15.3% chance to finish in the top four: 16.5% after a win, 13.3% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.5%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
For Safa Baku the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 74.1% going in: 65.6% after a win, 74.8% after a draw, 76.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.8%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Şamaxı FK v Safa Baku has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 48% / 30% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 28% / 17%: the biggest move is Şamaxı FK's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Şamaxı FK win55%▲ +7
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Safa Baku win17%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.