Fluminense vs Palmeiras CONMEBOL Libertadores prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Fluminense, 31% draw, 32% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the CONMEBOL Libertadores Semi-finals tie. Second leg: Palmeiras v Fluminense, 22 Oct →
Palmeiras went through on penalties, after 2–2 on aggregate.
All CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Fluminense at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1FábioG
- 23GugaD
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 29J. MillánD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 16NonatoM
- 8MartinelliM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 10PH GansoM
- 11J. SavarinoM
- 7HulkF
- 19R. CastilloF
- 32L. AcostaM
- 94OtávioM
- 35HérculesM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 44JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 90K. SernaF
- 30Y. SoteldoF
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 26MuriloD
- 15G. GómezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 4A. GiayM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 22J. PiquerezM
- 11J. AriasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 42J. LópezF
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 18MaurícioM
- 32E. MartínezM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 10PaulinhoF
- 56ArthurD
- 12KhellvenD
- 19R. SosaF
Form going into Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Fluminense
CONMEBOL Libertadores
- L1-2away to Platense15 September 2026
- W2-0Platense8 September 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia11 August 2026
- W3-1Deportivo La Guaira28 May 2026
Palmeiras
CONMEBOL Libertadores
- W1-0LDU de Quito9 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cerro Porteno19 August 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 August 2026
- W4-1Junior28 May 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Palmeiras won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Fluminense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
- 15 August 2026Fluminense 3–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 26 February 2026Palmeiras 2–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 November 2025Palmeiras 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 July 2025Fluminense 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 8 December 2024Palmeiras 0–1 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Palmeiras
Fluminense
No player in CONMEBOL Libertadores's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López44
- J. Arias32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palmeiras won 2–1 at Fluminense. The model had leaned towards a win for Fluminense at 37% and given a win for Palmeiras 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: José Manuel López 45' for Palmeiras, Marlon Freitas 85' for Palmeiras, Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado 90+3' for Fluminense. On expected goals it finished 0.52–1.19.
How the call on Fluminense v Palmeiras has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 35% / 32% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 37% / 31% / 32%: the biggest move is Fluminense's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Fluminense win37%▲ +2
- Draw31%▼ −1
- Palmeiras win32%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.