9 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Penafiel vs AVS Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
Referee: Jose Rodrigues
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Penafiel 1-2 AVS.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Penafiel, 26% draw, 30% AVS — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Penafiel at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Penafiel0%Draw5%AVS95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Roniassist: Leonardo Daniel Rivas
9'
⚽Lobato Rafaelassist: Hiago Santos
27'
Mateus Pivô
Jaime Sánchez
41'
43'
🔁Pedro Sáout: Juanda Fuentes
46'
🔁Jaime Sánchezout: Ricardo Schutte
46'
49'
🔁Antonio David Álvarez Reyout: Claudio Mendes
61'
66'
🔁Lobato Rafaelout: Guilherme Neiva
🔁Douglas Borelout: Duarte Oliveira
69'
⚽Max Svenssonassist: Alejandro Carbonell
69'
76'
🔁Roniout: Carlos Ponck
77'
🔁Rodrigo Pinhoout: Diogo Brasido
84'
🔁fernando almeidaout: Jorge Meireles
85'
🔁Hiago Santosout: Pedro Pimentel
90+3'

Match stats — Penafiel vs AVS

62%Possession38%
30Shots10
12On target3
8Corners2

Line-ups

Penafiel 3-4-3
  • 1Miguel OliveiraG
  • 5Jaime SánchezD
  • 6Adrián PicaD
  • 2Iano ImbeneD
  • 27Gonçalo NegrãoD
  • 21Pedro SáM
  • 8Àlex CarbonellM
  • 7Douglas BorelD
  • 17João PintoF
  • 9Max SvenssonF
  • 10DavoF
Substitutes
  • 99ClaudioF
  • 14Jorge MeréD
  • 4João MiguelD
  • 3Cláudio SilvaD
  • 23Duarte OliveiraD
  • 38M. RamonM
  • 13Eric PuertoG
  • 64tiago sampaioD
  • 33Ricardo SchutteF
Coach: José Manuel Aira
AVS 4-3-3
  • 1Dani RebolloG
  • 97Matheus PivôD
  • 3L. RosićD
  • 26Bernardo CondeD
  • 12L. RivasD
  • 70RoniM
  • 88F. AlmeidaD
  • 80Hiago SantosM
  • 19Lobato RafaelF
  • 9Rodrigo PinhoF
  • 30Talles WanderF
Substitutes
  • 28André SousaD
  • 25RaulG
  • 6Carlos PonckD
  • 49P. PimentelM
  • 7Guilherme NeivaF
  • 17R. N'doF
  • 8Jorge MeirelesF
  • 4Davi SchuindtD
  • 22Diogo BrasidoD
Coach: Sérgio Fonseca

Form going into Penafiel vs AVS

Penafiel

Segunda Liga

  • W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026

AVS

Segunda Liga

  • D0-0Farense13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Penafiel107122210+1222
11AVS103431312+113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Penafiel vs AVS

  • 3 March 2024Penafiel 0–1 AVSSegunda Liga
  • 9 October 2023AVS 1–0 PenafielSegunda Liga

The result against the call

AVS won 2–1 at Penafiel. The model had leaned towards a win for Penafiel at 44% and given a win for AVS 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Roni 3' for AVS, Lobato Rafael 9' for AVS, Max Svensson 69' for Penafiel.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Penafiel a 53.0% chance to finish in the top four: 57.6% after a win, 50.9% after a draw, 47.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.4%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.

For AVS the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 27.4% going in: 35.1% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 22.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 7.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Penafiel v AVS has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is Penafiel's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Penafiel win44%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. AVS win30%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.