Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Heart of Midlothian 4-0 Dundee United.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Heart of Midlothian, 26% draw, 34% Dundee United — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 6O. McEnteeD
- 5J. McCartD
- 7C. MillerD
- 16B. SpittalM
- 12T. RenaudM
- 29S. KerjotaM
- 10C. BragaM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 77A. Ba-SyF
- 30R. FultonG
- 22T. MagnussonM
- 11P. KaboreF
- 2C. BorchgrevinkD
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 74R. MatoF
- 21J. WilsonF
- 78L. MendyM
- 24M. KamaraD
- 1J. WaltonG
- 23J. RawlinsD
- 3B. EsselinkD
- 18M. ForbesD
- 11W. FerryD
- 5V. SeveljM
- 10D. TaitM
- 12E. AgyeiM
- 21J. RandallF
- 15L. RoseF
- 77D. BennieF
- 30J. AmissahG
- 20N. FarrugiaF
- 8P. CamaraM
- 6R. GrahamD
- 9Z. SapsfordM
- 14J. EskesenM
- 7M. MerghemF
- 4I. IovuD
- 93I. MetsokoF
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United
Heart of Midlothian
- L1-6away to Benfica6 August 2026
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
- L0-2Sturm Graz28 July 2026
- L0-4away to Sturm Graz21 July 2026
Dundee United
- D1-1Rangers31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 11 | Dundee United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United
- 9 August 2026Heart of Midlothian 4–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 31 January 2026Dundee United 0–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 9 November 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 10 August 2025Dundee United 2–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 6 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 0–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 5 January 2025Dundee United 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Dundee United
Heart of Midlothian
- J. Wilson3 goals
- J. McPake2 goals4 assists
- Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
Dundee United
- J. Randall1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.