Regular Season - 13 · 29 November 2026, 10:30 UTC

Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor Süper Lig prediction

Corum Stadyumu, Corum

Our model says: Çorum FK 1–0 Kocaelispor

The model makes it 40% Çorum FK, 29% draw, 31% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Çorum FK 1.40, Kocaelispor 1.16.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Çorum FK's rating is built from 11 Süper Lig matches and Kocaelispor's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.

Key facts

Çorum FK are 9th on 16 points from 11 games; Kocaelispor are 7th on 19 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
Çorum FK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Fenerbahçe.
Kocaelispor are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Eyüpspor.
Last 6 meetings: Kocaelispor 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 February 2025, ended Kocaelispor 2–0 Çorum FK.

More Süper Lig predictions

All Süper Lig predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor

52%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Çorum FK win Draw Kocaelispor win

1–113%
1–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%

Scores read Çorum FK first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Çorum FK at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor

Çorum FK

Süper Lig

L0-5Fenerbahçe8 November 2026
W3-1away to Erzurumspor FK31 October 2026
L0-2away to Göztepe25 October 2026
W2-1Rizespor16 October 2026
W3-0away to Gaziantep FK11 October 2026

Kocaelispor

Süper Lig

W2-0away to Eyüpspor7 November 2026
D0-0Rizespor31 October 2026
W2-1away to Alanyaspor23 October 2026
L1-2Göztepe18 October 2026
L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026

What these results say

Çorum FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Çorum FK had three goals or more.
Kocaelispor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	21	21	0	16
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	13	9	+4	19

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor

15 February 2025Kocaelispor 2–0 Çorum FK1. Lig
22 September 2024Çorum FK 0–2 Kocaelispor1. Lig
16 May 2024Çorum FK 2–1 Kocaelispor1. Lig
7 April 2024Çorum FK 1–1 Kocaelispor1. Lig
12 November 2023Kocaelispor 2–1 Çorum FK1. Lig
7 February 2021Çorum FK 0–1 Kocaelispor2. Lig

The full Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor record →

Leading scorers: Çorum FK and Kocaelispor

Çorum FK

GoalsAssists

C. Ramírez61
A. Kyziridis44
C. Ünder42

Kocaelispor

GoalsAssists

B. Kutlu51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kocaelispor (seventh, with Çorum FK ninth), while our numbers lean to Çorum FK. Çorum FK rate 0.96 in attack and 1.46 in defence, Kocaelispor 0.60 and 0.88 (lower is better in defence), so Çorum FK have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Çorum FK a 0% chance of the title and Kocaelispor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Çorum FK Kocaelispor

0.96 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.6

1.46 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.88

1.40 Model expected goals (this match) 1.16

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Çorum FK the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Çorum FK against 1.16 for Kocaelispor. Çorum FK's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/0.88 for Kocaelispor.

Çorum FK carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.71 for Kocaelispor. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Çorum FK to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Çorum FK to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Çorum FK's ratings add 2 points and Kocaelispor's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level41%−2
Çorum FK's ratings43%+2
Kocaelispor's ratings40%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Çorum FKModelKocaelispor

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

73%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

47%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

26%

model, this match

0 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

52%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Çorum FKKocaelispor

11Matches11

5W 1D 5LRecord6W 1D 4L

21 1.9 per gameGoals scored13 1.2 per game

21 1.9 per gameGoals conceded9 0.8 per game

2 of 11Clean sheets5 of 11

3 of 11Failed to score3 of 11

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1

21 1.9 per gameYellow cards23 2.1 per game

1Red cards0

4-1-4-1 4×Usual shape4-3-3 5×

Çorum FK at home · Kocaelispor away

5Played6

2W 0D 3LRecord3W 0D 3L

6–9Goals for – against7–7

1 of 5Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Çorum FKKocaelispor

Çorum FK are 9th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Kocaelispor are 7th after 11 (between 2nd and 18th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Süper Lig matches this season: Çorum FK 11, Kocaelispor 11.

Çorum FK scored 422346

Kocaelispor conceded 111121

Çorum FK score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Kocaelispor have let in 1 there.

Kocaelispor scored 162114

Çorum FK conceded 513363

Kocaelispor score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Çorum FK have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Çorum FK

at Trabzonspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 16%
vs Amed11 Dec · Süper Ligwin 31%
at Gençlerbirliği S.K.20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 36%
vs Konyaspor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 49%

Kocaelispor

at Erzurumspor FK6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 36%
vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 44%
at Trabzonspor21 Dec · Süper Ligwin 18%
vs Kasımpaşa17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 36%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.