29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Luxembourg vs Iceland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Referee: Enea Jorgji
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Luxembourg, 31% draw, 26% Iceland — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Luxembourg at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Luxembourg0%Draw1%Iceland99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Andri Guðjohnsenassist: Orri Steinn Óskarsson
🔁Laurent Jansout: Marvin Martins
15'
35'
Hakon Valdimarsson
39'
⚽Orri Steinn Óskarssonassist: Andri Guðjohnsen
59'
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
🔁Vincent Thillout: jayson videira
62'
🔁Mathias Olesenout: Enzo dos Santos
62'
67'
🔁Stefán Teitur Thórdarsonout: Hörður Magnússon
Leandro Barreiro
72'
73'
⚽Victor Pálssonassist: Gylfi Sigurðsson
74'
🔁Orri Steinn Óskarssonout: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
75'
🔁Andri Guðjohnsenout: Mikael Anderson
75'
🔁Hákon Arnar Haraldssonout: Isak Thorvaldsson
🔁J. de Sousa Moreira Cruzout: Timothé Rupil
76'
🔁Hamza Kadamaniout: Omar Natami
76'
78'
Mikael Ellertsson
85'
🔁Victor Pálssonout: Arnór Sigurðsson
Enes Mahmutovic
90'
90+1'
Isak Thorvaldsson

Match stats — Luxembourg vs Iceland

60%Possession40%
5Shots13
1On target4
2Corners2

Line-ups

Luxembourg 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. MorisG
  • 18L. JansD
  • 3E. MahmutovićD
  • 13D. CarlsonD
  • 4F. BohnertD
  • 19M. OlesenM
  • 11V. ThillM
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 16L. BarreiroM
  • 17H. KadamaniM
  • 7Aiman DardariF
Substitutes
  • 2E. DžogovićD
  • 9Jayson Videira PereiraF
  • 14E. VeigaD
  • 21S. ThillM
  • 5V. SelimovićD
  • 10T. RupilM
  • 12T. Pereira CardosoG
  • 8E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
  • 23T. KipsG
Coach: J. Strasser
Iceland 4-4-2
  • 12H. ValdimarssonG
  • 4V. PálssonD
  • 16S. ÞórðarsonD
  • 3D. GrétarssonD
  • 2L. TómassonD
  • 19M. EllertssonM
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 10G. SigurðssonM
  • 7H. HaraldssonM
  • 22A. GuðjohnsenF
  • 9O. ÓskarssonF
Substitutes
  • 13A. EinarssonG
  • 17A. GunnarssonM
  • 20Þ. HelgasonM
  • 15K. IngasonF
  • 23H. MagnússonD
  • 1R. RúnarssonG
  • 21A. SigurðssonM
  • 11J. ÞorsteinssonF
  • 5Í. ÞorvaldssonF
Coach: A. Gunnlaugsson

Form going into Luxembourg vs Iceland

Luxembourg

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026

Iceland

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1Estonia26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Luxembourg510428-63
1Iceland5320121+1111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Luxembourg vs Iceland

  • 13 October 2023Iceland 1–1 LuxembourgEuro Championship - Qualification
  • 8 September 2023Luxembourg 3–1 IcelandEuro Championship - Qualification

Leading scorers: Luxembourg and Iceland

Luxembourg

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Iceland

GoalsAssists

  • A. Guðjohnsen51
  • O. Óskarsson42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Iceland won 3–0 at Luxembourg. The model had leaned towards a win for Luxembourg at 43% and given a win for Iceland 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Andri Guðjohnsen 13' for Iceland, Orri Steinn Óskarsson 39' for Iceland, Victor Pálsson 73' for Iceland.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.