Fiorentina vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Fiorentina, 30% draw, 35% Napoli — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fiorentina at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fiorentina vs Napoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 43David De GeaG
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 3Radu DrăguşinD
- 6Luca RanieriD
- 33VieryD
- 27Cher NdourM
- 44Nicolò FagioliM
- 14Arthur AttaM
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 25Alieu NjieF
- 21Víctor ValdepeñasD
- 28Pedro GonçalvesM
- 23BetoF
- 29Wilfried GnontoF
- 5Marin PongračićD
- 53Oliver ChristensenG
- 19Luca LezzeriniG
- 17João MárioD
- 2DodôD
- 32Vanja Milinković-SavićG
- 22Giovanni Di LorenzoD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 17Mathías OliveraD
- 6Billy GilmourM
- 68Stanislav LobotkaM
- 21Matteo PolitanoM
- 11Kevin De BruyneM
- 70Noa LangM
- 19Rasmus HøjlundF
- 20Lorenzo LuccaF
- 7David NeresF
- 2Costantino FavasuliD
- 99Frank AnguissaM
- 12Claudio PuglieseG
- 14Nikita ContiniG
- 31Sam BeukemaD
- 5Benoît BadiashileD
- 26Antonio VergaraM
Form going into Fiorentina vs Napoli
Fiorentina
All competitions we cover
- W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
- L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
- L0-4away to AS Roma24 August 2026
Napoli
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026
What these results say
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Fiorentina had three goals or more.
- Fiorentina failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Napoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Napoli
- 31 January 2026Napoli 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 13 September 2025Fiorentina 1–3 NapoliSerie A
- 9 March 2025Napoli 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 4 January 2025Fiorentina 0–3 NapoliSerie A
- 17 May 2024Fiorentina 2–2 NapoliSerie A
Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Napoli
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Mateo Pellegrino40
- Franco Mastantuono40
Napoli
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fiorentina and Napoli drew 1–1. The goals: B. Gilmour 23' for Napoli, A. Jimenez 51' for Fiorentina. On expected goals it finished 0.94–1.45.
How the call on Fiorentina v Napoli has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 30% / 35%: the biggest move is Napoli's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Fiorentina win35%▼ −1
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Napoli win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.