Frosinone vs Como Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Frosinone 2-0 Como.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Frosinone, 26% draw, 42% Como — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Como at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Frosinone vs Como
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Lorenzo PalmisaniG
- 20Anthony OyonoD
- 3Gabriele CalvaniD
- 30Ilario MonterisiD
- 79Gabriele BracagliaD
- 14Giacomo CalòM
- 73Patrizio MasiniM
- 7Farès GhedjemisM
- 10Romano SchmidM
- 17Giorgi KvernadzeM
- 9Antonio RaimondoF
- 2Giorgio CittadiniD
- 16Matteo CichellaM
- 24Alessio ZerbinF
- 5Wisdom AmeyD
- 34Anouar El AzzouziM
- 91Sebastiano DesplanchesG
- 12Matteo PisseriG
- 25Kevin AkpogumaD
- 90Enzo Tchato MbiayiD
- 1Jean ButezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo RamónD
- 99Trevoh ChalobahD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 6Luis MillaM
- 7Lucas Da CunhaM
- 11Assane DiaoM
- 10Nico PazM
- 20Martin BaturinaM
- 9Anastasios DouvikasF
- 17Jesús RodriguezF
- 21Samuele RicciM
- 90Moise KeanF
- 16KaikiD
- 5Máximo PerroneM
- 22Mauro VigoritoG
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 53Willy KambwalaD
- 28Ivan SmolčićD
Form going into Frosinone vs Como
Frosinone
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
- L0-1Juventus23 August 2026
Como
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Parma14 September 2026
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
- W4-1away to Genoa4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Udinese22 August 2026
What these results say
- Frosinone scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Frosinone conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Como went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Como scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Como conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Como | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Como
- 4 February 2023Como 0–2 FrosinoneSerie B
- 3 September 2022Frosinone 2–0 ComoSerie B
- 16 February 2022Frosinone 1–2 ComoSerie B
- 17 September 2021Como 0–2 FrosinoneSerie B
- 7 August 2016Frosinone 3–0 ComoCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Frosinone and Como
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo80
- G. Calò51
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Frosinone beat Como 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Como at 42% and given a win for Frosinone 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: G. Calo 14' for Frosinone, G. Kvernadze 45+3' for Frosinone. On expected goals it finished 1.96–2.20.
How the call on Frosinone v Como has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Como's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Frosinone win32%▼ −1
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Como win42%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.