Juventus vs Atalanta Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Juventus 2-0 Atalanta.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Juventus, 29% draw, 25% Atalanta — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Juventus at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Juventus vs Atalanta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Guglielmo VicarioG
- 15Pierre KaluluD
- 3Gleison BremerD
- 26Jhon LucumíD
- 31Nicolás GonzálezM
- 22Weston McKennieM
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 2Zeki ÇelikM
- 7Francisco ConceiçãoF
- 17Kerim AlajbegovićF
- 9Randal Kolo MuaniF
- 29Pape Matar SarrM
- 8Teun KoopmeinersM
- 11Edon ZhegrovaF
- 27Nick WoltemadeF
- 6Lloyd KellyD
- 23Carlo PinsoglioG
- 40Riccardo RaduG
- 4Federico GattiD
- 24Daniele RuganiD
- 29Marco CarnesecchiG
- 16Raoul BellanovaD
- 31Thomas KristensenD
- 42Giorgio ScalviniD
- 47Lorenzo BernasconiD
- 10Lazar SamardžićM
- 19Franck KessiéM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 17Charles De KetelaereF
- 90Nikola KrstovićF
- 11Jonathan RoweF
- 18Giacomo RaspadoriF
- 70Gianluca GaetanoM
- 9Gianluca ScamaccaF
- 99Eljif ElmasM
- 22Thomas PompeiG
- 57Marco SportielloG
- 23Sead KolašinacD
- 40Relja ObrićD
- 43Jacopo MirraD
Form going into Juventus vs Atalanta
Juventus
All competitions we cover
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Frosinone23 August 2026
Atalanta
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hapoel Tel Aviv27 August 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026
What these results say
- Juventus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Atalanta
- 11 April 2026Atalanta 0–1 JuventusSerie A
- 5 February 2026Atalanta 3–0 JuventusCoppa Italia
- 27 September 2025Juventus 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 16 August 2025Atalanta 1–2 JuventusFriendlies Clubs
- 9 March 2025Juventus 0–4 AtalantaSerie A
Leading scorers: Juventus and Atalanta
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Juventus beat Atalanta 2–0. The model had made a win for Juventus its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: F. Conceicao 28' for Juventus, Bremer 77' for Juventus. On expected goals it finished 1.30–0.61.
How the call on Juventus v Atalanta has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Juventus win46%▼ −4
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Atalanta win25%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.