15 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük 1. Lig prediction & result

Mardin
Referee: Burak Olcar
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Mardin 1969 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Mardin 1969, 31% draw, 28% Fatih Karagümrük — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mardin 1969 at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mardin 196997%Draw3%Fatih Karagümrük0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Zdravko Dimitrovassist: Olarenwaju Kayode
10'
Adem Eren Kabak
18'
🔁Kerim Alıcıout: Eray Korkmaz
31'
Tonio Teklić
38'
🔁Tonio Teklićout: Şahverdi Çetin
55'
🔁Mallik Wilksout: Emre Taşdemir
55'
65'
🔁Ramazan Civelekout: J. Esen
65'
🔁Baris Kalayciout: Tiago Cukur
🔁Đorđe Denićout: O. Yıldırım
72'
🔁Olarenwaju Kayodeout: Berkay Dogan
73'
80'
🔁Manolis Siopisout: Marius Tresor Doh
84'
🔁Yaya Onogoout: Tarık Buğra Kalpaklı
90'
Anil Cinar
Emre Taşdemir
90+3'

Match stats — Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük

32%Possession68%
6Shots14
1On target2
5Corners4
0.75xG1.14

Goals against chances

Mardin 19691 from 0.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
Fatih Karagümrük0 from 1.14 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mardin 1969 4-4-2
  • 1E. KardeşlerG
  • 27K. AlıcıD
  • 25M. ŞengülD
  • 15U. GezerD
  • 3N. YardımcıD
  • 47M. WilksM
  • 16A. KabakM
  • 91T. TeklićM
  • 10Z. DimitrovM
  • 9O. KayodeF
  • 8Đ. DenićF
Substitutes
  • 29Ö. KahveciG
  • 70Enes ErolM
  • 64B. DoğanD
  • 11B. BalatM
  • 17E. KorkmazD
  • 33E. TaşdemirD
  • 77D. TaşkanF
  • 45O. YıldırımF
  • 7Ş. ÇetinM
Coach: Ivaylo Petev
Fatih Karagümrük 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. SilvestriG
  • 25M. SarıkayaD
  • 4D. BiraschiD
  • 28A. ÇınarD
  • 21Candan BaskaleD
  • 19Y. OnogoM
  • 20M. SiopisM
  • 22R. CivelekM
  • 5E. AkbabaM
  • 7Baris KalayciM
  • 9C. TosunF
Substitutes
  • 23B. ŞenG
  • 11T. ÇukurF
  • 6R. YalçınM
  • 17Tarık Buğra KalpaklıF
  • 27Muhammed KadiogluD
  • 98B. EvliG
  • 41J. EsenM
  • 14Marius Tresor DohM
  • 53Kaan Arda DemirM
Coach: A. Stanojević

Form going into Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük

Mardin 1969

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Bursaspor11 October 2026

Fatih Karagümrük

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Muğlaspor11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Mardin 1969147431913+625
9Fatih Karagümrük145452016+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük

Mardin 1969

GoalsAssists

  • O. Kayode52

Fatih Karagümrük

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pešić52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mardin 1969 beat Fatih Karagümrük 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Mardin 1969 at 41%. The goal: Zdravko Dimitrov 10' for Mardin 1969. On expected goals it finished 0.75–1.14.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mardin 1969 a 34.5% chance to finish in the top four: 39.5% after a win, 32.5% after a draw, 27.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.5%, 5 points higher than before the match.

For Fatih Karagümrük the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 32.5% going in: 41.7% after a win, 31.0% after a draw, 27.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.2%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mardin 1969 v Fatih Karagümrük has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 37% / 32% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 31% / 28%: the biggest move is Mardin 1969's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Mardin 1969 win41%▲ +4
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Fatih Karagümrük win28%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.