15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova
Referee: D. Smajc
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Universitatea Craiova 1-1 Getafe.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Universitatea Craiova, 33% draw, 22% Getafe — fair odds of 2.22, 3.03 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Universitatea Craiova at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universitatea Craiova3%Draw95%Getafe2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

O. Romanchuk
27'
46'
🔁A. Garciaout: Kiko Femenia
J. Lameira
51'
A. Cicaldau
56'
F. Coelho
58'
⚽A. Al Hamlawiassist: A. Cicaldau
59'
59'
🔁Davinchiout: J. Mojica
69'
🔁M. Martinout: A. R. Alcantara
🔁S. Baiaramout: D. Matei
70'
72'
J. Mojica
🔁A. Al Hamlawiout: S. Elisor
75'
🔁J. Lameiraout: A. Cretu
75'
V. Screciu
77'
81'
⚽N. Gudelj
82'
🔁R. Terratsout: S. Boselli
🔁A. Cicaldauout: L. Basceanu
85'

Match stats — Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe

43%Possession57%
12Shots13
4On target3
4Corners4
0.57xG1.45

Goals against chances

Universitatea Craiova1 from 0.57 xGabout what the chances were worth
Getafe1 from 1.45 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Universitatea Craiova 3-4-3
  • 21Laurenţiu PopescuG
  • 3Oleksandr RomanchukD
  • 24Nikola StevanovićD
  • 6Vladimir ScreciuD
  • 23Samuel TelesM
  • 16João LameiraM
  • 8Tudor BăluțăM
  • 11Nicușor BancuM
  • 20Alexandru CicâldăuF
  • 9Assad Al-HamlawiF
  • 10Ștefan BaiaramF
Substitutes
  • 30David MateiM
  • 4Alexandru CrețuM
  • 22Simon ElisorF
  • 29Luca BăsceanuM
  • 1Alexandru MaximG
  • 90Răzvan SavaG
  • 31Ronaldo WebsterD
  • 5Baptiste RouxD
  • 7Steven NsimbaF
Getafe 4-2-3-1
  • 13David SoriaG
  • 21Andrés GarcíaD
  • 2DjenéD
  • 26Jean Ives ValouD
  • 3DavinchiD
  • 8Nemanja GudeljM
  • 16Francho SerranoM
  • 11Ramón TerratsM
  • 6Mario MartínM
  • 10Martín SatrianoM
  • 9Borja MayoralF
Substitutes
  • 17Kiko FemeníaD
  • 22Johan MojicaD
  • 28Alberto RiscoM
  • 15Sebastián BoselliD
  • 1Jiří LetáčekG
  • 35Diego FerrerG
  • 4Saba SazonovD
  • 5Abdel AbqarD

Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe

Universitatea Craiova

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026
  • W5-0FCSB19 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Corvinul Hunedoara13 September 2026
  • W4-0Universitatea Cluj7 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Rapid31 August 2026

Getafe

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
  • W1-0Malaga20 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Real Betis17 September 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
  • D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Universitatea Craiova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Universitatea Craiova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Universitatea Craiova won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Getafe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Getafe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Getafe had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Universitatea Craiova321062+47
31Getafe301237-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Universitatea Craiova and Getafe drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Universitatea Craiova at 45% and given a draw 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Al Hamlawi 59' for Universitatea Craiova, N. Gudelj 81' for Getafe. On expected goals it finished 0.57–1.45.

How the call on Universitatea Craiova v Getafe has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 41% / 33% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 33% / 22%: the biggest move is Universitatea Craiova's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Universitatea Craiova win45%▲ +4
  2. Draw33%=
  3. Getafe win22%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.