16 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Mirassol vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result

José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol
Referee: Bruno Arleu
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Mirassol 2-0 Internacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Mirassol, 28% draw, 25% Internacional — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mirassol at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mirassol99%Draw1%Internacional0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Matheus Cunha
17'
🔁Alexandro Bernabéiout: Kauan Jesus Santos Oliveira
43'
Vitinho
Neto Moura
45+5'
45'
🔁Alerrandroout: Felix Torres
🔁Neto Mouraout: Alesson dos Santos Batista
45'
⚽Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alveassist: Edson Carioca
48'
57'
Bruno Gomes
59'
🔁José Carlos Ferreira Júniorout: joao victor
60'
🔁Matheus Bahiaout: Johan Carbonero
61'
Rodrigo Villagra
🔁Edson Cariocaout: Fernandinho
68'
🔁Denilson Alves Borgesout: Wallisson
68'
🔁Bruno Santos de Oliveiraout: André Luis
74'
André Luis
77'
🔁Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alveout: Chico Kim
79'
81'
Johan Carbonero
82'
🔁Thiago Maiaout: João Bezerra
⚽André Luisassist: Fernandinho
87'
89'
Gabriel Mercado
90+1'
Kauan Jesus Santos Oliveira
⚽Reinaldo (pen)
90+2'

Match stats — Mirassol vs Internacional

62%Possession38%
24Shots13
7On target4
5Corners2
3.2xG0.72

Goals against chances

Mirassol2 from 3.20 xGless than the chances were worth
Internacional0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mirassol 4-2-3-1
  • 22WalterG
  • 32Igor FormigaD
  • 34João VictorD
  • 3Willian MachadoD
  • 6ReinaldoD
  • 25Neto MouraM
  • 27DenilsonM
  • 7ShaylonM
  • 33EduardoM
  • 95EdsonM
  • 30Bruno SantosF
Substitutes
  • 99Zé RobertoF
  • 80WallissonM
  • 96Carlos EduardoF
  • 20Daniel BorgesD
  • 5JapaM
  • 10ChicoM
  • 44GabrielD
  • 90ThomazellaG
  • 17FernandinhoF
Coach: Rafael Guanaes
Internacional 3-4-2-1
  • 23Matheus CunhaG
  • 15Bruno GomesD
  • 25G. MercadoD
  • 18JuninhoD
  • 35B. AguirreM
  • 5R. VillagraM
  • 29Thiago MaiaM
  • 6Matheus BahiaM
  • 28VitinhoM
  • 26A. BernabéiM
  • 9AlerrandroF
Substitutes
  • 49J. BezerraF
  • 7J. CarboneroF
  • 8Bruno HenriqueM
  • 17N. EliassonM
  • 30CalebeM
  • 22KauanG
  • 27PaulinhoM
  • 4F. TorresD
  • 41Victor GabrielD
Coach: Eduardo Baptista

Form going into Mirassol vs Internacional

Mirassol

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Bahia11 October 2026
  • D1-1away to RB Bragantino7 October 2026
  • W2-0Botafogo19 September 2026
  • D2-2Vitoria13 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Coritiba6 September 2026

Internacional

Serie A

  • D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Mirassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Mirassol351011143948-941
16Internacional34911143842-438

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Internacional

  • 19 April 2026Internacional 1–2 MirassolSerie A
  • 15 October 2025Mirassol 3–1 InternacionalSerie A
  • 18 May 2025Internacional 1–1 MirassolSerie A

Leading scorers: Mirassol and Internacional

Mirassol

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.

Internacional

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carbonero74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mirassol beat Internacional 2–0. The model had made a win for Mirassol its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve 48' for Mirassol, André Luis 87' for Mirassol. Sent off: Matheus Cunha (Internacional) 15'. On expected goals it finished 3.20–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mirassol a 11.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.2% after a win, 13.2% after a draw, 21.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.2%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

For Internacional the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.5% going in: 6.2% after a win, 17.1% after a draw, 22.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.5%, 5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mirassol v Internacional has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Mirassol's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Mirassol win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Internacional win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.