30 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Bate Borisov Premier League prediction & result

Haradski Stadium, Barysaw
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1-0 Bate Borisov.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk, 30% draw, 26% Bate Borisov — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk97%Draw3%Bate Borisov0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Andrei Zaleski
17'
⚽Dmitri Antilevskiassist: Dzambolat·Tsallagov
40'
Dzambolat·Tsallagov
44'
45'
🔁Victorien Angbanout: Nikolay Bochko
45'
🔁Marat Titovout: Kirill Kaplenko
🔁Dzambolat·Tsallagovout: Khetag Badoev
45'
🔁Daniel Volskiyout: Roman Ermolin
45'
🔁Maksim·Matveevout: Egor Bozhko
56'
Roman Ermolin
61'
74'
🔁Ivan Mikhniukout: Egor Rusakov
74'
🔁erick puertoout: yaroslav khramtsevich
🔁Vladislav Vasilyevout: V. Tkachenko
75'
86'
Yuriy Kovalev
87'
🔁vladislav yatskevichout: Aik Musahagian
🔁Valeri Gorbachikout: Nikita Kaplenko
90'
90+6'
Kirill Kaplenko

Match stats — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Bate Borisov

40%Possession60%
4Shots15
0On target5
3Corners6

Line-ups

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 3-5-2
  • 30A. SorokoG
  • 23D. PolyakovD
  • 41D. LutikD
  • 31A. ZaleskiyD
  • 71M. MatveevM
  • 11D. TsallagovM
  • 46V. VasilyevM
  • 18D. VolskiyM
  • 13I. OreshkevichM
  • 90D. AntilevskiyF
  • 33V. GorbachikF
Substitutes
  • 4RamiresD
  • 79K. BadoevM
  • 2E. BozhkoD
  • 69R. ErmolinM
  • 8N. KaplenkoM
  • 1I. SankoG
  • 10S. SazonchikM
  • 16A. VaschenkoG
  • 9I. VasinF
Coach: I. Trukhov
Bate Borisov 3-4-3
  • 35A. SkopetsG
  • 88P. DubovskiyD
  • 28I. MikhnyukD
  • 5M. SakutaD
  • 7V. AngbanM
  • 21M. TitovM
  • 52E. KressM
  • 26V. VaraksaM
  • 17Y. KovalevF
  • 24V. YatskevichF
  • 37E. PuertoF
Substitutes
  • 16D. SokolG
  • 10E. RusakovM
  • 6H. MoussakhanianD
  • 13Y. KhramtsevichM
  • 55K. KaplenkoM
  • 30T. GagloevM
  • 23N. BochkoD
  • 4Alexey ApanasevichM
  • 3I. KuimovM
Coach: V. Rogozhkin

Form going into Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Bate Borisov

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Premier League

  • D0-0FC Dnepr Mogilev25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 October 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026

Bate Borisov

Premier League

  • L0-1Belshina24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev18 October 2026
  • L0-2Neman14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2869132546-2127
14Bate Borisov2859142034-1424

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Bate Borisov

  • 21 June 2026Bate Borisov 2–3 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
  • 31 January 2026Bate Borisov 0–1 Arsenal DzerzhinskFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 September 2025Bate Borisov 0–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
  • 2 May 2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–1 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 8 March 2025Bate Borisov 2–1 Arsenal DzerzhinskFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 October 2024Bate Borisov 3–2 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League

The result against the call

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk beat Bate Borisov 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at 44%. The goal: Dmitri Antilevski 40' for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arsenal Dzerzhinsk a 19.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.2% after a win, 20.5% after a draw, 46.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.2%, 14.8 points lower than before the match.

For Bate Borisov the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 68.0% going in: 34.9% after a win, 68.7% after a draw, 84.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.5%, 16.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arsenal Dzerzhinsk v Bate Borisov has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 44% / 30% / 26%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.

  1. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win44%▼ −1
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. Bate Borisov win26%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.