France vs Belgium UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: France 4-1 Belgium.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% France, 30% draw, 30% Belgium — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
France at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — France vs Belgium
Line-ups
- 1G. RestesG
- 5J. KoundéD
- 15L. YoroD
- 17M. LacroixD
- 13A. DioufD
- 18M. AklioucheM
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 8M. KonéM
- 7O. DembéléF
- 19E. LepaulF
- 12B. BarcolaF
- 23J. ButezG
- 9R. CherkiM
- 21L. da CunhaM
- 20D. DouéF
- 2P. KaluluD
- 16M. MaignanG
- 11M. OliseM
- 14A. RabiotM
- 3A. TruffertD
- 12M. VandevoordtG
- 21T. CastagneD
- 15N. NgoyD
- 4B. MecheleD
- 18J. SeysD
- 23N. RaskinM
- 6R. LaviaM
- 14D. LukebakioM
- 20H. VanakenM
- 19Diego MoreiraM
- 9R. LukakuF
- 10L. TrossardF
- 3A. TheateD
- 16K. SabbeD
- 13M. PendersG
- 11L. OpendaF
- 1S. LammensG
- 8M. KeitaM
- 7M. GodtsF
- 22M. Fernandez-PardoF
Form going into France vs Belgium
France
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1Italy2 October 2026
- W1-0away to Belgium28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Türkiye25 September 2026
Belgium
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0Türkiye2 October 2026
- L0-1France28 September 2026
- W2-0away to Italy25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | France | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: France vs Belgium
- 28 September 2026Belgium 0–1 FranceUEFA Nations League
- 14 October 2024Belgium 1–2 FranceUEFA Nations League
- 9 September 2024France 2–0 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
- 1 July 2024France 1–0 BelgiumEuro Championship
- 7 October 2021Belgium 2–3 FranceUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: France and Belgium
France
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise52
Belgium
GoalsAssists
- K. De Bruyne31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
France beat Belgium 4–1. The model had made a win for France its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Dodi Lukebakio 35' for Belgium, Désiré Doue 77' for France, Rayan Cherki 81' for France, Michael Olise 88' for France, Michael Olise 90+1' for France.