Ukraine vs Hungary UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Ukraine 1-2 Hungary.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Ukraine, 34% draw, 33% Hungary — fair odds of 3.03, 2.94 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
the draw at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ukraine vs Hungary
Line-ups
- 12A. TrubinG
- 13I. ZabarnyiD
- 3E. SarapiyD
- 4T. MykhavkoD
- 2I. KrupskyiM
- 19E. NazarynaM
- 18O. OcheretkoM
- 21V. VeletenM
- 15V. TsygankovM
- 10M. PonomarenkoF
- 22I. KrasnopirF
- 7A. YarmolenkoM
- 6V. BrazhkoM
- 14O. DrambaevD
- 20M. KhlanM
- 8O. NazarenkoM
- 17O. PikhalyonokM
- 23D. RiznykG
- 11V. VanatF
- 16I. VarfolomeevM
- 1B. TóthG
- 2A. OsváthD
- 6W. OrbánD
- 3M. CsingerD
- 18Z. NagyD
- 13A. SchäferM
- 10D. SzoboszlaiM
- 16D. LukacsM
- 8M. VitálisM
- 21A. TóthM
- 20M. TóthF
- 4B. VárkonyiD
- 9D. BárányF
- 14B. BollaD
- 19R.TóthM
- 7Tamás SzücsM
- 11J. SzalaiF
- 22Á. PécsiG
- 5A. MarkgráfD
- 17G. JurekF
Form going into Ukraine vs Hungary
Ukraine
UEFA Nations League
- L0-3Northern Ireland2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Georgia28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hungary25 September 2026
Hungary
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0Georgia2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Northern Ireland28 September 2026
- L0-1Ukraine25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ukraine | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 2 | Hungary | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ukraine vs Hungary
- 25 September 2026Hungary 0–1 UkraineUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Hungary won 2–1 at Ukraine. The model had leaned towards a draw at 34% and given a win for Hungary 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Milan Tóth 52' for Hungary, Roman Yaremchuk 83' for Ukraine, Mark Csinger 85' for Hungary.
How the call on Ukraine v Hungary has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 33% / 34% / 33%: the biggest move is Hungary's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Ukraine win33%▲ +1
- Draw34%▲ +4
- Hungary win33%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.