Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Bosnia & Herzegovina, 29% draw, 42% Poland — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Poland at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland
Line-ups
- 22M. ZlomislićG
- 7Z. SmajlovićD
- 18N. KatićD
- 4T. MuharemovićD
- 5S. KolašinacD
- 15A. MemićM
- 8A. GigovićM
- 13I. BašićM
- 16Ermin MahmićM
- 10E. DemirovićF
- 23H. TabakovićF
- 9S. BaždarF
- 19J. LukićF
- 1M. JurkasG
- 3A. MalicD
- 17A. HasićM
- 12S. HamzićG
- 11E. BajraktarevicF
- 2N. MujakićD
- 20N. OmerovićF
- 1M. BułkaG
- 2M. CashD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 14J. KiwiorD
- 19P. FrankowskiD
- 16W. NowakM
- 10P. ZielińskiM
- 11K. ŚwiderskiM
- 20S. SzymańskiM
- 21N. ZalewskiM
- 9M. ŻukowskiF
- 12M. KochalskiG
- 7O. PietuszewskiF
- 23K. PotulskiD
- 15T. PuchaczD
- 18M. RegułaM
- 17M. SkóraśF
- 6B. SliszM
- 8K. UrbaÅskiM
- 3P. WiśniewskiD
Form going into Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1Sweden2 October 2026
- W4-2away to Romania28 September 2026
- D0-0away to Poland25 September 2026
Poland
UEFA Nations League
- W6-0Romania2 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sweden28 September 2026
- D0-0Bosnia & Herzegovina25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland
- 25 September 2026Poland 0–0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League
- 14 October 2020Poland 3–0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League
- 7 September 2020Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–2 PolandUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Poland 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Poland at 42% and given a win for Bosnia & Herzegovina 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Ivan Bašić (penalty) 84' for Bosnia & Herzegovina.
How the call on Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 29% / 29% / 42%: the biggest move is Poland's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Bosnia & Herzegovina win29%▼ −3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Poland win42%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.