Northern Ireland vs Georgia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Northern Ireland 0-0 Georgia.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Northern Ireland, 34% draw, 29% Georgia — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Northern Ireland at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Northern Ireland vs Georgia
Line-ups
- 1P. CharlesG
- 4Tom AtchesonD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 22C. BrownD
- 5T. HumeM
- 19S. CharlesM
- 7E. GalbraithM
- 3J. DevennyM
- 16Patrick KellyM
- 14I. PriceM
- 10J. DonleyF
- 12C. HazardG
- 2T. DevlinM
- 21J. MagennisF
- 8C. MarshallF
- 17P. McNairD
- 13K. MorrisonM
- 9C. O’NeillF
- 23B. Peacock-FarrellG
- 11P. SmythF
- 1G. MamardashviliG
- 2O. KakabadzeD
- 20S. SazonovD
- 3L. DvaliD
- 4L. LochoshviliD
- 6G. KochorashviliM
- 14A. MekvabishviliM
- 15G. MamageishviliM
- 9Z. DavitashviliM
- 7K. KvaratskheliaM
- 11B. ZivzivadzeF
- 21G. GaguaF
- 18I. YegoianM
- 19G. TsitaishviliF
- 22G. MikautadzeF
- 8N. LominadzeM
- 12S. LobzhanidzeF
- 17G. KvernadzeF
- 16S. KharebashviliD
- 23L. GugeshashviliG
Form going into Northern Ireland vs Georgia
Northern Ireland
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0away to Ukraine2 October 2026
- D0-0Hungary28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Georgia25 September 2026
Georgia
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1away to Hungary2 October 2026
- D0-0Ukraine28 September 2026
- L0-1Northern Ireland25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Georgia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Northern Ireland vs Georgia
- 25 September 2026Georgia 0–1 Northern IrelandUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Northern Ireland and Georgia drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Northern Ireland at 37% and given a draw 34%.
How the call on Northern Ireland v Georgia has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 34% / 31% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 34% / 29%: the biggest move is Georgia's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Northern Ireland win37%▲ +3
- Draw34%▲ +3
- Georgia win29%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.