Italy vs Türkiye UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Italy 3-1 Türkiye.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Italy, 27% draw, 26% Türkiye — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Italy at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Italy vs Türkiye
Line-ups
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 23G. ManciniD
- 6A. BastoniD
- 3M. RuggeriD
- 18N. BarellaM
- 4A. RomanoM
- 15I. DoumbiaM
- 21A. VergaraF
- 11G. ScamaccaF
- 17D. MaldiniF
- 7N. CambiaghiF
- 5R. CalafioriD
- 12M. CarnesecchiG
- 9F. EspositoF
- 20S. EspositoF
- 10N. FagioliM
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 14S. InacioF
- 2M. KayodeD
- 1U. ÇakırG
- 20F. KadıoğluD
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 15O. KabakD
- 14A. BardakcıD
- 13E. ElmalıD
- 5S. ÖzcanM
- 16İ. YüksekM
- 10İ. KahveciM
- 21A. ŞimşirM
- 19Y. AkgünF
- 4E. TopçuD
- 8E. TıknazM
- 23M. ŞengezerG
- 17M. KabasakalM
- 9D. GülF
- 11I. FakiliF
- 22M. EskihellaçD
- 6B. ElmazM
- 3M. DemiralD
Form going into Italy vs Türkiye
Italy
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1away to France2 October 2026
- W4-1away to Türkiye28 September 2026
- L0-2Belgium25 September 2026
Türkiye
UEFA Nations League
- L0-3away to Belgium2 October 2026
- L1-4Italy28 September 2026
- L0-1France25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Italy vs Türkiye
- 28 September 2026Türkiye 1–4 ItalyUEFA Nations League
- 4 June 2024Italy 0–0 TürkiyeFriendlies
- 29 March 2022Türkiye 2–3 ItalyFriendlies
- 11 June 2021Türkiye 0–3 ItalyEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Italy and Türkiye
Italy
GoalsAssists
- F. Esposito41
Türkiye
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Italy beat Türkiye 3–1. The model had made a win for Italy its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gianluca Scamacca 26' for Italy, Aral Simsir 61' for Türkiye, Riccardo Calafiori 64' for Italy, Pio Esposito 87' for Italy.
How the call on Italy v Türkiye has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Italy's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Italy win47%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Türkiye win26%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.