5 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Cyprus vs Latvia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

GSP Stadium, Nicosia
Referee: Giorgi Kruashvili
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Cyprus 2-1 Latvia.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Cyprus, 32% draw, 26% Latvia — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cyprus at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cyprus4%Draw94%Latvia2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
Raivis Jurkovskis
45'
🔁Lukass Vapneout: Kristers Cudars
45'
🔁Markuss Strodsout: danila patijcuks
57'
⚽Eduards Daskevicsassist: Vladislavs Gutkovskis
🔁Andronikos Kakoullisout: Giannis Kosti
58'
🔁Loizos Loizouout: Stavros Georgiou
58'
60'
🔁Vladislavs Gutkovskisout: Roberts Uldriķis
🔁Ioannis Pittasout: A. Neophytou
67'
🔁Kostakis Artymatasout: Charalampos Kyriakou
67'
⚽Giannis Kosti
70'
74'
🔁Eduards Daskevicsout: Albert aleksanjan
76'
danila patijcuks
Leonidas·Konomis
85'
85'
Andrejs Cigaņiks
88'
🔁Dmitrijs Zelenkovsout: Aleksejs Saveljevs
🔁Grigoris Kastanosout: Nicholas Tsaroulla
90+1'
⚽Marcus Edwardsassist: Nicholas Tsaroulla
90+4'
Marcus Edwards
90+5'

Match stats — Cyprus vs Latvia

62%Possession38%
19Shots12
7On target1
7Corners3

Line-ups

Cyprus 4-2-3-1
  • 1FabianoG
  • 15L. KonomisD
  • 4H. KyprianouD
  • 3N. PanagiotouD
  • 14G. MalekkidesD
  • 18K. ArtymatasM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 23M. EdwardsM
  • 10L. LoizouM
  • 11A. KakoullisM
  • 9I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 17A. ChristouD
  • 12J. MallG
  • 8C. KyriakouM
  • 7A. NeophytouF
  • 22A. ParaskevasG
  • 13I. KostiM
  • 19S. GeorgiouF
  • 16P. AndreouM
  • 5K. SotiriouD
Coach: A. Mantzios
Latvia 5-4-1
  • 23R. MatrevicsG
  • 13R. JurkovskisD
  • 21D. MeļņiksD
  • 4O. VientiessD
  • 2D. BalodisD
  • 14A. CigaņiksD
  • 7E. DašķevičsM
  • 10L. VapneM
  • 15D. ZelenkovsM
  • 17M. StrodsM
  • 9V. GutkovskisF
Substitutes
  • 5O. RubenisF
  • 1N. PuriņšG
  • 6D. PatijčuksM
  • 12F. OrolsG
  • 8E. EmsisM
  • 18A. AleksanjanM
  • 20R. UldriķisF
  • 3G. ŽaleikoM
  • 19M. ToņiševsD
Coach: P. Nicolato

Form going into Cyprus vs Latvia

Cyprus

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-0Armenia2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Latvia28 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Montenegro25 September 2026

Latvia

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2Montenegro2 October 2026
  • D0-0Cyprus28 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Armenia25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Cyprus522164+28
4Latvia501438-51

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cyprus vs Latvia

  • 28 September 2026Latvia 0–0 CyprusUEFA Nations League
  • 21 March 2024Cyprus 1–1 LatviaFriendlies

The result against the call

Cyprus beat Latvia 2–1. The model had made a win for Cyprus its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Eduards Daskevics 57' for Latvia, Giannis Kosti 70' for Cyprus, Marcus Edwards 90+4' for Cyprus.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.