Latvia
vs
Armenia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Latvia 0–1 Armenia
The model makes it 27% Latvia, 31% draw, 42% Armenia — fair odds of 3.70, 3.23 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Latvia 0.86, Armenia 1.22.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Edge to Armenia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Latvia's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Armenia's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Latvia are bottom on 1 point from 5 games; Armenia are 3rd on 5 points from 5 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Latvia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Montenegro.
- Armenia are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cyprus.
- Last 5 meetings: Armenia 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 September 2026, ended Armenia 2–0 Latvia.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Latvia vs Armenia
Has the model earned this number?
Armenia at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Latvia vs Armenia
Latvia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Montenegro12 November 2026
- L1-2away to Cyprus5 October 2026
- L1-2Montenegro2 October 2026
- D0-0Cyprus28 September 2026
- L0-2away to Armenia25 September 2026
Armenia
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1Cyprus12 November 2026
- D0-0away to Montenegro5 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cyprus2 October 2026
- L2-3Montenegro28 September 2026
- W2-0Latvia25 September 2026
What these results say
- Latvia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Latvia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Armenia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Armenia had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Latvia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 3 | Armenia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Armenia vs Latvia
Armenia and Latvia have met 5 times in the records we hold, Armenia has won 4 of them to Latvia's 1.
The record
Armenia won the last one 2–0 on 25 Sep 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armenia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
| Latvia | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Sep 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueArmenia 2–0 Latvia - 17 Nov 2024
UEFA Nations LeagueLatvia 1–2 Armenia - 7 Sep 2024
UEFA Nations LeagueArmenia 4–1 Latvia - 12 Oct 2023
Euro Championship - QualificationLatvia 2–0 Armenia - 19 Jun 2023
Euro Championship - QualificationArmenia 2–1 Latvia
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Armenia's attack rates 30% above Latvia's, and Armenia concede 15% fewer than Latvia. That gives Armenia the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Armenia the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Latvia against 1.22 for Armenia. Latvia's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.2 for Armenia.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 42% for Armenia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Armenia to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Latvia's ratings add 5 points and Armenia's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level32%−2
- Latvia's ratings37%+5
- Armenia's ratings42%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.