Gaziantep FK
vs
Amed
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Gaziantep FK 1–2 Amed
The model makes it 20% Gaziantep FK, 22% draw, 58% Amed — fair odds of 5.00, 4.55 and 1.72.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.21, Amed 2.38.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Amed are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Gaziantep FK's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Amed's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Gaziantep FK are 16th on 8 points from 11 games; Amed are 3rd on 23 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Gaziantep FK have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Kasımpaşa.
- Amed have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Galatasaray.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gaziantep FK vs Amed
Has the model earned this number?
Amed at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gaziantep FK vs Amed
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig
- L0-2Kasımpaşa6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Trabzonspor1 November 2026
- L1-3Erzurumspor FK24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Başakşehir18 October 2026
- L0-3Çorum FK11 October 2026
Amed
Süper Lig
- L3-4away to Galatasaray7 November 2026
- W5-1Eyüpspor1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Samsunspor24 October 2026
- W1-0Konyaspor17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.10 October 2026
What these results say
- Gaziantep FK did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gaziantep FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Amed scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Amed conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Gaziantep FK | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
| 3 | Amed | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gaziantep FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 62% today
Amed
Chance to finish in the top four · 56% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Gaziantep FK and Amed
Gaziantep FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban104
- D. Sabia61
- S. Ballet41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gaziantep FK a 0% chance of the title and Amed 4.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amed the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gaziantep FK against 2.38 for Amed. Gaziantep FK's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/1.21 for Amed.
How the model reaches 58% for Amed to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Amed to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Gaziantep FK's ratings add 12 points and Amed's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Gaziantep FK's ratings43%+12
- Amed's ratings58%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gaziantep FK at home · Amed away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Gaziantep FKAmed
Gaziantep FK are 16th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 3rd and 16th so far); Amed are 3rd after 11 (between 1st and 9th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Gaziantep FK 11, Amed 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gaziantep FK
- at Konyaspor5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 25%
- vs Beşiktaş14 Dec · Süper Ligwin 19%
- at Samsunspor20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 28%
- vs Galatasaray17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 14%
Amed
- vs Alanyaspor5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 67%
- at Çorum FK11 Dec · Süper Ligwin 47%
- vs Göztepe18 Dec · Süper Ligwin 56%
- at Fenerbahçe17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.