Samsunspor
vs
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Samsunspor 2–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.
The model makes it 39% Samsunspor, 27% draw, 34% Gençlerbirliği S.K. — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.54, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.41.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Samsunspor's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Samsunspor are 17th on 7 points from 11 games; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 14th on 11 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Samsunspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Konyaspor.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Beşiktaş.
- Last 6 meetings: Samsunspor 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 Samsunspor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Has the model earned this number?
Samsunspor at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Samsunspor
Süper Lig
- W1-0Konyaspor7 November 2026
- L2-5away to Başakşehir1 November 2026
- L1-2Amed24 October 2026
- L1-4away to Kasımpaşa18 October 2026
- L0-3Trabzonspor10 October 2026
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş8 November 2026
- W5-0Alanyaspor2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Konyaspor25 October 2026
- L0-1Galatasaray17 October 2026
- D2-2Amed10 October 2026
What these results say
- Samsunspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Samsunspor | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 7 |
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Samsunspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- 18 January 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 9 August 2025Samsunspor 2–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 18 March 2023Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 Samsunspor1. Lig
- 8 October 2022Samsunspor 2–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 15 February 2022Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–2 Samsunspor1. Lig
- 19 September 2021Samsunspor 2–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gençlerbirliği S.K. (14th, with Samsunspor 17th), while our numbers lean to Samsunspor. Samsunspor rate 0.73 in attack and 1.53 in defence, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.70 and 1.27 (lower is better in defence), so Samsunspor have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Samsunspor the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Samsunspor against 1.41 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Samsunspor's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.27 for Gençlerbirliği S.K..
How the model reaches 39% for Samsunspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Samsunspor to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Samsunspor's ratings take away 2 points and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Samsunspor's ratings41%−2
- Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s ratings39%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Samsunspor at home · Gençlerbirliği S.K. away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SamsunsporGençlerbirliği S.K.
Samsunspor are 17th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 2nd and 17th so far); Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 14th after 11 (between 1st and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Samsunspor 11, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 11.
Samsunspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Gençlerbirliği S.K. have let in 3 there.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Samsunspor have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Samsunspor
- at Beşiktaş6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 12%
- at Alanyaspor12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 30%
- vs Gaziantep FK20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 46%
- at Eyüpspor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- vs Eyüpspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 59%
- at Kocaelispor13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 25%
- vs Çorum FK20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 39%
- at Rizespor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.