Iraklis 1908
vs
Panetolikos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Iraklis 1908 1–0 Panetolikos
The model makes it 51% Iraklis 1908, 28% draw, 21% Panetolikos — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Iraklis 1908 1.59, Panetolikos 0.81.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Iraklis 1908: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Iraklis 1908's rating is built from 10 Greek Super League matches and Panetolikos's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- Iraklis 1908 are 9th on 10 points from 10 games; Panetolikos are 10th on 9 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
- Iraklis 1908 are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Panathinaikos.
- Panetolikos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Aris Thessalonikis.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Iraklis 1908 vs Panetolikos
Has the model earned this number?
Iraklis 1908 at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Iraklis 1908 vs Panetolikos
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1
- L1-2Panathinaikos8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Kalamata2 November 2026
- L2-3Kifisia24 October 2026
- L1-2away to PAOK18 October 2026
- W2-0Levadiakos11 October 2026
Panetolikos
Super League 1
- L0-3away to Aris Thessalonikis7 November 2026
- L0-1OFI1 November 2026
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC24 October 2026
- L0-2Olympiakos Piraeus18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Kifisia11 October 2026
What these results say
- Iraklis 1908 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Iraklis 1908 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Iraklis 1908 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panetolikos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Panetolikos failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Panetolikos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Iraklis 1908
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Panetolikos
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Iraklis 1908 vs Panetolikos
- 4 December 2025Iraklis 1908 0–0 PanetolikosCup
Leading scorers: Iraklis 1908 and Panetolikos
Iraklis 1908
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Marques31
Panetolikos
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Iraklis 1908 the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 against 0.81 for Panetolikos. Iraklis 1908's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.51 for Panetolikos.
How the model reaches 51% for Iraklis 1908 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Iraklis 1908 to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Iraklis 1908's ratings add 6 points and Panetolikos's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Iraklis 1908's ratings46%+6
- Panetolikos's ratings51%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Iraklis 1908 at home · Panetolikos away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Iraklis 1908Panetolikos
Iraklis 1908 are 9th after 10 Super League 1 matches (between 7th and 13th so far); Panetolikos are 10th after 10 (between 1st and 10th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Iraklis 1908 10, Panetolikos 10.
Iraklis 1908 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Panetolikos have let in 1 there.
Panetolikos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Iraklis 1908 have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Iraklis 1908
- at OFI6 Dec · Super League 1win 29%
- vs Aris Thessalonikis12 Dec · Super League 1win 39%
- at Panathinaikos20 Dec · Super League 1win 12%
- vs Volos NFC9 Jan · Super League 1win 54%
Panetolikos
- vs Atromitos7 Dec · Super League 1win 28%
- at Kalamata12 Dec · Super League 1win 22%
- at Olympiakos Piraeus20 Dec · Super League 1win 8%
- vs Kifisia10 Jan · Super League 1win 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.