Genk vs Gent Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Genk 1-1 Gent.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Genk, 31% draw, 30% Gent — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Genk at 39% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Genk vs Gent
Line-ups
- 28L. Kiaba MoungangaG
- 20K. AmaroD
- 6M. SmetsD
- 44J. KongoloD
- 18J. KayembeD
- 21I. BangouraM
- 8B. HeynenM
- 10J. ItoM
- 11J. ErenbjergM
- 30A. YokoyamaM
- 17R. DurosinmiF
- 33J. AfriyieF
- 23A. BiboutF
- 32Noah Adedeji-SternbergF
- 38D. HeymansM
- 4B. TahirovićM
- 24N. SattlbergerM
- 5C. RavychD
- 25M. RoganovićD
- 1T. LeysenG
- 33D. RoefG
- 5M. NgomD
- 16C. BurgessD
- 44S. Van der HeydenD
- 7M. BalikwishaM
- 27T. De VliegerM
- 17M. Delorge-KnieperM
- 20Tiago AraújoM
- 14Kyrell WilsonM
- 11M. SonkoM
- 47J. Y. Vergara OrtegaF
- 30K. PeersmanG
- 3M. PaskotšiD
- 37A. KadriM
- 45B. GooreF
- 39A. AyindéD
- 57M. VolckaertD
- 59E. SeckF
- 22Leonardo LopesM
- 75I. CisseF
Form going into Genk vs Gent
Genk
- D0-0away to Anderlecht6 September 2026
- W4-0SK Beveren28 August 2026
- D4-4away to Antwerp22 August 2026
- W3-2KVC Westerlo15 August 2026
Gent
- W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
- W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026
- W2-1Club Brugge KV30 August 2026
- W2-1away to RAAL La Louvière16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Genk | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Gent | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Genk vs Gent
- 13 September 2026Genk 1–1 GentJupiler Pro League
- 31 May 2026Gent 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 1 March 2026Genk 3–0 GentJupiler Pro League
- 9 November 2025Gent 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 18 May 2025Gent 1–4 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 30 March 2025Genk 4–0 GentJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Genk and Gent
Genk
- R. Durosinmi5 goals
Gent
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.