Manchester United vs Manchester City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Manchester United, 27% draw, 29% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Manchester United at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Manchester United vs Manchester City
Line-ups
- 1S. LammensG
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 5H. MaguireD
- 6Lisandro MartínezD
- 13P. DorguD
- 18Y. TielemansM
- 37K. MainooM
- 19B. MbeumoM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 9M. RashfordM
- 10Matheus CunhaF
- 26A. HeavenD
- 3N. MazraouiD
- 15L. YoroD
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 7M. MountM
- 31S. LaceyF
- 30B. ŠeškoF
- 12K. DarlowG
- 11J. ZirkzeeF
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 27Matheus NunesD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 17E. FernándezM
- 5E. AndersonM
- 47P. FodenM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 7I. NdiayeF
- 28G. RulliG
- 37AllanF
- 82R. LewisD
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 33N. O'ReillyD
- 22Vitor NunesD
- 8M. KovačićM
- 32A. BouaddiM
Form going into Manchester United vs Manchester City
Manchester United
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Sabah FA10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Everton6 September 2026
- W5-2Ipswich30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Hull City22 August 2026
Manchester City
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to FC Porto8 September 2026
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
- W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026
What these results say
- Manchester United scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Manchester United conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Manchester United had three goals or more.
- Manchester City won every one of these 4 matches.
- Manchester City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 8 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester United vs Manchester City
- 17 January 2026Manchester United 2–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 14 September 2025Manchester City 3–0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 6 April 2025Manchester United 0–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 15 December 2024Manchester City 1–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 10 August 2024Manchester City 1–1 Manchester UnitedCommunity Shield
Leading scorers: Manchester United and Manchester City
Manchester United
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Fernandes42
- B. Mbeumo40
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland90
- R. Cherki52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Manchester City won 1–0 at Manchester United. The model had leaned towards a win for Manchester United at 44% and given a win for Manchester City 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Erling Haaland 60' for Manchester City. Sent off: Phil Foden (Manchester City) 23'.
How the call on Manchester United v Manchester City has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Manchester United's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Manchester United win44%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Manchester City win29%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.