Manchester United vs Manchester City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Manchester United, 27% draw, 29% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester United at 44% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Manchester United vs Manchester City
Line-ups
- 1S. LammensG
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 5H. MaguireD
- 6Lisandro MartínezD
- 13P. DorguD
- 18Y. TielemansM
- 37K. MainooM
- 19B. MbeumoM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 9M. RashfordM
- 10Matheus CunhaF
- 26A. HeavenD
- 3N. MazraouiD
- 15L. YoroD
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 7M. MountM
- 31S. LaceyF
- 30B. ŠeškoF
- 12K. DarlowG
- 11J. ZirkzeeF
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 27Matheus NunesD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 17E. FernándezM
- 5E. AndersonM
- 47P. FodenM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 7I. NdiayeF
- 28G. RulliG
- 37AllanF
- 82R. LewisD
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 33N. O'ReillyD
- 22Vitor NunesD
- 8M. KovačićM
- 32A. BouaddiM
Form going into Manchester United vs Manchester City
Manchester United
- D2-2away to Everton6 September 2026
- W5-2Ipswich30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Hull City22 August 2026
Manchester City
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
- W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester United vs Manchester City
- 13 September 2026Manchester United 0–1 Manchester CityPremier League
- 17 January 2026Manchester United 2–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 14 September 2025Manchester City 3–0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 6 April 2025Manchester United 0–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 15 December 2024Manchester City 1–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 10 August 2024Manchester City 1–1 Manchester UnitedCommunity Shield
Leading scorers: Manchester United and Manchester City
Manchester United
- Bruno Fernandes3 goals1 assists
Manchester City
- E. Haaland4 goals
- R. Cherki2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.