23 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Gimnasia Mendoza vs Platense Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Victor Legrotaglie, Mendoza
Referee: Hernan Mastrangelo, Argentina
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Gimnasia Mendoza 1-2 Platense.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Gimnasia Mendoza, 30% draw, 23% Platense — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gimnasia Mendoza at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gimnasia Mendoza4%Draw94%Platense2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Agustín Módica
10'
31'
Ivan Gómez
37'
•Gonzalo Lencina
58'
🔁Ivan Gómezout: Maximiliano Amarfil
58'
🔁Bautista Merliniout: Franco Zapiola Yamartino
🔁Luciano César Cingolaniout: Matías Vargas
64'
Diego Mondino
67'
72'
🔁Kevin Retamarout: Guido Mainero
🔁Agustín Módicaout: Blas Armoa Nunez
72'
72'
🔁Juan Ignacio Saboridoout: Agustin Lagos
79'
⚽Juan Carlos Gautoassist: Guido Mainero
80'
🔁Gonzalo Lencinaout: Bruno Christian Sepulveda
🔁Facundo Lencioniout: Valentino Simoni
85'
🔁Esteban Fernándezout: Martín Úbeda
85'
90+3'
⚽Bruno Christian Sepulvedaassist: Franco Zapiola Yamartino

Match stats — Gimnasia Mendoza vs Platense

49%Possession51%
14Shots24
2On target10
2Corners9
1.54xG2.46

Goals against chances

Gimnasia Mendoza1 from 1.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Platense2 from 2.46 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gimnasia Mendoza 4-1-4-1
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 32L. ParedesD
  • 2D. MondinoD
  • 42L. CarreraD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 17I. SabatiniM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 30E. FernándezM
  • 7L. CingolaniM
  • 9A. MódicaF
Substitutes
  • 33B. AndradaF
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 36I. CortezD
  • 22J. FrancoD
  • 41G. PatrittiD
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 11S. RodríguezF
  • 35V. SimoniF
  • 15U. SánchezM
Coach: D. Franco
Platense 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. CozzaniG
  • 25J. SaboridoD
  • 34M. MendiaD
  • 31V. CuestaD
  • 3T. SilvaD
  • 5I. GómezM
  • 24M. BarriosM
  • 43N. RetamarM
  • 18B. MerliniM
  • 33J. GautoM
  • 99G. LencinaF
Substitutes
  • 1B. BustosG
  • 4A. LagosD
  • 21A. LottiF
  • 7G. MaineroF
  • 6E. RaggioD
  • 79B. SepúlvedaF
  • 16G. TogniF
  • 13I. VázquezD
  • 10F. ZapiolaM
Coach: M. Palermo

Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Platense

Gimnasia Mendoza

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 October 2026
  • W1-0Newell's Old Boys12 October 2026

Platense

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-1Lanus17 October 2026
  • D1-1Argentinos Juniors11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Gimnasia Mendoza166461817+122
10Platense165561820-220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Platense

  • 12 April 2026Platense 1–1 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 February 2019Gimnasia Mendoza 0–3 PlatensePrimera Nacional

Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Platense

Gimnasia Mendoza

GoalsAssists

  • A. Módica140

Platense

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Platense won 2–1 at Gimnasia Mendoza. The model had leaned towards a win for Gimnasia Mendoza at 47% and given a win for Platense 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Agustín Módica 10' for Gimnasia Mendoza, Juan Carlos Gauto 79' for Platense, Bruno Christian Sepulveda 90+3' for Platense. On expected goals it finished 1.54–2.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gimnasia Mendoza these chances to finish in the top eight: 99.0% after a win, 90.7% after a draw, 77.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 77.5%.

For Platense the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 67.8% going in: 34.6% after a win, 67.9% after a draw, 81.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.6%, 33.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.