24 October 2026, 17:45 UTC

Banfield vs Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Florencio Sola, Buenos Aires
Referee: Facundo Raul Tello Figueroa, Argentina
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Banfield 1-1 Lanus.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Banfield, 31% draw, 39% Lanus — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lanus at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Banfield3%Draw94%Lanus3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Adrián Balboaassist: Lautaro Martín Gómez
20'
33'
Carlos Izquierdoz
Tomas Adoryan
37'
🔁David Zalazarout: Alexander Machado
61'
🔁Tomas Adoryanout: Favio Álvarez
61'
62'
⚽Carlos Izquierdozassist: Matías Sepúlveda
66'
🔁Lucas Agustín Besozziout: Gonzalo Thomás Lobos
73'
Agustín Cardozo
Lautaro Martín Gómez
73'
75'
🔁Matías Sepúlvedaout: benjamin acosta
76'
🔁Eduardo Salvioout: Ramiro Carrera
Adrián Balboa
76'
🔁Federico Medinaout: Lisandro Geronimo Piñero
84'
84'
🔁Agustín Cardozoout: Felipe Peña Biafore
84'
🔁Allan Steven Wlk Duréout: Yoshan Valois
•Lautaro Martín Gómez
87'
🔁Adrián Balboaout: Santiago López García
90+1'
90+7'
Ramiro Carrera
Santiago López García
90+8'

Match stats — Banfield vs Lanus

40%Possession60%
13Shots10
1On target3
6Corners6
0.75xG0.89

Goals against chances

Banfield1 from 0.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lanus1 from 0.89 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Banfield 4-3-3
  • 50D. RodríguezG
  • 4J. AlfaroD
  • 2S. DanieleD
  • 6N. MerianoD
  • 27I. AbrahamD
  • 10L. GómezM
  • 5Santiago EsquivelM
  • 20T. AdoryánM
  • 18Federico MedinaF
  • 9A. BalboaF
  • 40D. ZalazarF
Substitutes
  • 11F. ÁlvarezM
  • 21L. VillegasM
  • 25G. SantilliG
  • 28M. HernándezF
  • 19L. CanoD
  • 30F. AnselmoF
  • 24S. LópezM
  • 22A. MachadoF
  • 37R. MalancaD
Coach: P. Troglio
Lanus 4-2-3-1
  • 26N. LosadaG
  • 33T. GuidaraD
  • 24C. IzquierdozD
  • 13J. CanaleD
  • 6S. MarcichD
  • 17A. MedinaM
  • 30A. CardozoM
  • 16M. SepúlvedaM
  • 11E. SalvioM
  • 77L. BesozziM
  • 20A. WlkF
Substitutes
  • 42G. LobosF
  • 15R. LoaizaM
  • 35R. De JesúsD
  • 23R. CarreraM
  • 38B. AcostaF
  • 40Tomás LópezD
  • 3N. MorgantiniD
  • 1F. PetroliG
  • 5F. PeñaM
Coach: M. Pellegrino

Form going into Banfield vs Lanus

Banfield

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-1Argentinos Juniors17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Tigre10 October 2026

Lanus

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W1-0away to Platense17 October 2026
  • W2-0Velez Sarsfield12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Banfield163671825-715
5Lanus167541912+726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Banfield vs Lanus

  • 13 April 2026Lanus 1–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 November 2025Banfield 2–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 19 April 2025Lanus 1–1 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 30 November 2024Banfield 0–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 26 February 2024Lanus 1–1 BanfieldCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 1 October 2023Banfield 1–0 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Banfield vs Lanus record →

The result against the call

Banfield and Lanus drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lanus at 39% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Adrián Balboa 20' for Banfield, Carlos Izquierdoz 62' for Lanus. On expected goals it finished 0.75–0.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Banfield a 26.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.5% after a win, 25.5% after a draw, 42.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.5%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.

For Lanus the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A, 2.1% going in: 4.6% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Banfield v Lanus has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 33% / 31% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 31% / 39%: the biggest move is Banfield's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Banfield win30%▼ −3
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Lanus win39%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.