23 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Borås Arena, Boras
Referee: Granit Maqedonci, Sweden
Full time0 – 0

Final score: IF Elfsborg 0-0 Malmo FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% IF Elfsborg, 27% draw, 27% Malmo FF — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

IF Elfsborg at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IF Elfsborg5%Draw92%Malmo FF3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
Stian Gregersen
45'
🔁Sead Hakšabanovićout: Anders Christiansen
🔁Arbër Zeneliout: Ari Sigurpalsson
65'
🔁Simon Olssonout: Simon Hedlund
65'
65'
🔁Diego Garcíaout: Daniel Gudjohnsen
65'
🔁Otto Rosengrenout: Emmanuel Ekong
Thomas Isherwood
74'
76'
Anders Christiansen
🔁Julius Beckout: Marcus Rohdén
78'
🔁Rasmus Wikströmout: Sebastian Holmen
79'
80'
🔁Theodor Lundberghout: Viggo Jeppsson
Sebastian Holmen
87'
🔁Momoh Ibrahim Kamaraout: Taylor Silverholt
88'
90'
🔁Stian Gregersenout: Malte Vilhelm Frejd Pålsson
Niklas Hult
90+4'

Match stats — IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF

44%Possession56%
14Shots14
2On target2
8Corners2
0.92xG0.67

Goals against chances

IF Elfsborg0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth
Malmo FF0 from 0.67 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

IF Elfsborg 4-2-3-1
  • 31I. PetterssonG
  • 16A. JensenD
  • 6R. WikströmD
  • 4T. IsherwoodD
  • 23N. HultD
  • 18J. MagnússonM
  • 10S. OlssonM
  • 29M. KamaraM
  • 19J. BeckM
  • 9A. ZeneliM
  • 21L. ÖstmanF
Substitutes
  • 3J. EsengaD
  • 12T. SanderG
  • 5O. NordvallM
  • 7M. RohdénM
  • 25A. SigurpálssonF
  • 11T. SilverholtF
  • 15S. HedlundM
  • 17P. FrickF
  • 8S. HolménD
Coach: Björn Hamberg
Malmo FF 4-3-3
  • 1R. OlsenG
  • 17J. Stryger LarsenD
  • 5A. ĐurićD
  • 2S. GregersenD
  • 25BusanelloD
  • 37A. SkogmarM
  • 7O. RosengrenM
  • 47Theodor LundberghM
  • 28J. MilosavljevićF
  • 9Diego GarcíaF
  • 29S. HakšabanovićF
Substitutes
  • 27J. DahlinG
  • 6Y. KarabelyovM
  • 11E. EkongM
  • 44M. PålssonD
  • 32D. GuðjohnsenF
  • 42V. JeppssonM
  • 4B. KurtulusD
  • 10A. ChristiansenM
  • 54amadeus sundgrenD
Coach: G. Helstrup

Form going into IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF

IF Elfsborg

Allsvenskan

  • D2-2away to Sirius18 October 2026

Malmo FF

Allsvenskan

  • L0-1BK Hacken18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5IF Elfsborg28121064231+1146
7Malmo FF28125114236+641

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF

  • 26 July 2026Malmo FF 1–2 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 14 September 2025IF Elfsborg 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 7 April 2025Malmo FF 2–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 10 March 2025Malmo FF 1–0 IF ElfsborgSvenska Cupen
  • 28 May 2024Malmo FF 2–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 5 May 2024IF Elfsborg 3–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF

IF Elfsborg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Östman112

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for IF Elfsborg at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.92–0.67.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave IF Elfsborg a 6.7% chance to finish in the top three: 9.7% after a win, 3.9% after a draw, 2.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 3.9%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is IF Elfsborg's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. IF Elfsborg win46%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Malmo FF win27%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.