23 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Vasteras SK FK vs Halmstad Allsvenskan prediction & result

Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras
Referee: Glenn Nyberg
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Vasteras SK FK 1-2 Halmstad.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Vasteras SK FK, 25% draw, 16% Halmstad — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vasteras SK FK at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vasteras SK FK5%Draw93%Halmstad2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽jonathan karlssonassist: Abdelrahman Saidi
45'
🔁Jack Tagessonout: Frédéric Nsabiyumva
71'
71'
🔁Ludvig Arvidssonout: Oliver Kapsimalis
71'
🔁Ajdin Zeljkovicout: Malte Persson
72'
Rami Kaib
🔁Mattias Hellisdalout: Jonathan Ring
76'
🔁Abdelrahman Saidiout: karl gunnarsson
76'
83'
🔁Rocco Asconeout: Filip·Schyberg
83'
🔁Rami Kaibout: Gabriel Wallentin
🔁jonathan karlssonout: Marcus Baggesen
85'
🔁Mamadou Diagneout: Peter Amoran
85'
86'
⚽Pascal Gregorassist: Gabriel Wallentin
90+2'
⚽Hussein Carneilassist: Joel Allansson

Match stats — Vasteras SK FK vs Halmstad

51%Possession49%
20Shots10
7On target5
10Corners1
2.11xG0.4

Goals against chances

Vasteras SK FK1 from 2.11 xGless than the chances were worth
Halmstad2 from 0.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vasteras SK FK 5-4-1
  • 34E. JägerG
  • 11S. GefvertD
  • 24J. TagessonD
  • 4P. BondeD
  • 2H. MagnussonD
  • 15J. KarlssonD
  • 19J. MagnussonM
  • 30M. HellisdalM
  • 8M. DiagneM
  • 7A. BoudahM
  • 17A. TaonsaF
Substitutes
  • 23P. AmoranD
  • 3M. BaggesenD
  • 1A. FagerströmG
  • 5K. GunnarssonM
  • 16Bonaventure LendambiF
  • 18F. NsabiyumvaD
  • 10J. RingF
  • 21V. WernerssonD
  • 20M. LjungqvistD
Coach: Alexander Rubin
Halmstad 4-1-4-1
  • 1T. RönningG
  • 17A. BomanD
  • 5P. GregorD
  • 16E. TõugjasD
  • 24R. KaibD
  • 28T. TrybullM
  • 11L. ArvidssonM
  • 27R. AsconeM
  • 6J. AllanssonM
  • 14H. CarneilM
  • 23A. ZeljkovicF
Substitutes
  • 3G. WallentinD
  • 4F. SchybergD
  • 18Malte PerssonF
  • 8N. MäenpääM
  • 22Oliver KapsimalisF
  • 19M. IllaryM
  • 9O. FarajF
  • 25A. Damnjanovic NilssonM
  • 35A. WihedG
Coach: S. Baxter

Form going into Vasteras SK FK vs Halmstad

Vasteras SK FK

Allsvenskan

  • W1-0Mjallby AIF18 October 2026

Halmstad

Allsvenskan

  • L0-1Hammarby FF18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Vasteras SK FK2813694038+245
16Halmstad2855182052-3220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Halmstad

  • 4 July 2026Halmstad 1–3 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 26 August 2024Halmstad 0–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 13 April 2024Vasteras SK FK 0–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 21 August 2022Halmstad 1–1 Vasteras SK FKSuperettan
  • 28 May 2022Vasteras SK FK 2–2 HalmstadSuperettan
  • 27 February 2021Halmstad 0–0 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen

Leading scorers: Vasteras SK FK and Halmstad

Vasteras SK FK

GoalsAssists

  • A. Taonsa102
  • M. Ladefoged92

Halmstad

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Halmstad won 2–1 at Vasteras SK FK. The model had leaned towards a win for Vasteras SK FK at 59% and given a win for Halmstad 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: jonathan karlsson 45' for Vasteras SK FK, Pascal Gregor 86' for Halmstad, Hussein Carneil 90+2' for Halmstad. On expected goals it finished 2.11–0.40.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Halmstad a 98.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 96.0% after a win, 98.5% after a draw, 99.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.0%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.