9 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta, Sabadell
Referee: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Sabadell 0-0 Real Sociedad II.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sabadell, 29% draw, 26% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sabadell at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sabadell4%Draw93%Real Sociedad II3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Quadri Liameedout: Arthur Bonaldo
12'
•Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquez
36'
39'
Luken Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
45+5'
Javier Soroeta
🔁Yanis Rahmaniout: Javi López-Pinto
55'
65'
🔁Javier Soroetaout: Gorka Carrera Zarranz
65'
🔁Unax Agoteout: Jon Balda
65'
🔁Alex Marchal Garcíaout: Lander Astiazarán
🔁José Luis Catalàout: yussif owusu
68'
🔁Genar Fornésout: Nikolay Obolskiy
68'
77'
Alex Lebarbier
78'
🔁Gorka Gorosabelout: Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
🔁Ton Ripollout: Juan Carlos Lázaro Cervera
78'
78'
🔁Dani Diazout: Andrews Adjabeng
🔁Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquezout: Alain Ribeiro
78'
Edgar Gonzalez
82'
Pere Pons
88'
90+1'
🔁Tomy Carbonellout: Joan Oleaga

Match stats — Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II

54%Possession46%
19Shots10
3On target1
5Corners3
0.83xG1.24

Goals against chances

Sabadell0 from 0.83 xGless than the chances were worth
Real Sociedad II0 from 1.24 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sabadell 4-4-2
  • 1Diego FuoliG
  • 7Ton RipollD
  • 27José Luis CatalàD
  • 6Edgar GonzálezD
  • 3Genar FornésD
  • 19Y. RahmaniM
  • 22Q. LiameedM
  • 8Pere PonsM
  • 10Ángel BaenaM
  • 23J. PriegoF
  • 12Gastón VallesF
Substitutes
  • 25Marc VidalG
  • 33Joaquim Utgés AlmedaF
  • 13J. OrtegaG
  • 21Alain RibeiroM
  • 5Arthur BonaldoM
  • 15Kaiser LázaroD
  • 11Javi LópezM
  • 18Y. OwusuM
  • 9N. ObolskiyF
Coach: Ferran Costa
Real Sociedad II 4-4-2
  • 32Lander OlasagastiG
  • 22RupérezD
  • 4Luken BeitiaD
  • 5K. KitaD
  • 23Unax AgoteD
  • 7Dani DíazM
  • 14Tomás CarbonellM
  • 6A. LebarbierM
  • 11Alex GarciaM
  • 16Gorka GorosabelF
  • 19Javier SoroetaF
Substitutes
  • 34Andrews AdjabengF
  • 17Lander AstiazaránF
  • 24A. UnaxD
  • 3Jon BaldaD
  • 15I. CalderonD
  • 20Sydney OsazuwaF
  • 12J. OleagaM
  • 10Arkaitz MariezkurrenaF
  • 2Jon GarroD
Coach: Ion Ansotegi

Form going into Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II

Sabadell

Segunda División

  • L1-2away to Albacete31 October 2026
  • D1-1Tenerife25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Burgos18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026

Real Sociedad II

Segunda División

  • W1-0Girona31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Las Palmas24 October 2026
  • L2-4Almeria17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sabadell conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sabadell failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sabadell scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Sabadell134631211+118
18Real Sociedad II143471724-713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II

  • 17 February 2024Real Sociedad II 0–1 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
  • 5 November 2023Sabadell 1–2 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
  • 2 April 2023Real Sociedad II 1–1 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
  • 5 November 2022Sabadell 1–2 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 2

The result against the call

Sabadell and Real Sociedad II drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sabadell at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.83–1.24.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Sociedad II a 22.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 16.1% after a win, 22.2% after a draw, 26.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.2%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sabadell v Real Sociedad II has moved

First published on 26 Oct at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Sabadell's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Sabadell win45%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Real Sociedad II win26%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.