Las Palmas vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Las Palmas 2-0 Eldense.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Las Palmas, 27% draw, 26% Eldense — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Las Palmas at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Las Palmas vs Eldense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13José CaroG
- 25Valentín PezzolesiD
- 4Álex SuárezD
- 15Juan HerzogD
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 20Kirian RodríguezM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 14Manu FusterM
- 24Iván JaimeF
- 10JeséF
- 11T. MiyashiroF
- 35Adrián SuárezG
- 9J. RecobaM
- 44Adrián Rodríguez del RosarioD
- 7Jefté BetancorF
- 26A. BassingaM
- 16Mateo AcimovicM
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 32Rafa CruzF
- 22Ale GarcíaM
- 1Ramón VilaG
- 17Jesús ClementeD
- 5Alex SerradellD
- 2Iker RecioD
- 3Juan LariosD
- 8Marcos BustilloM
- 14J. SmithM
- 10FidelM
- 12Roberto LópezM
- 7Jorge RastrojoM
- 9M. CarmonaF
- 4F. SmandD
- 19A. IbarrondoF
- 23Jordi MartínD
- 24Javi MartínezM
- 11Manu NietoF
- 33Aingeru OlabarrietaF
- 34J. OlaizolaD
- 13JuanpaG
- 20Waldo RubioF
Form going into Las Palmas vs Eldense
Las Palmas
Segunda División
- W3-2away to Oviedo2 November 2026
- W1-0Real Sociedad II24 October 2026
- L0-3Castellón17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026
Eldense
Segunda División
- L0-2Granada CF1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Albacete25 October 2026
- W3-2away to Valladolid18 October 2026
- W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026
What these results say
- Las Palmas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Las Palmas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Las Palmas had three goals or more.
- Eldense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Las Palmas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 20 |
| 16 | Eldense | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Las Palmas beat Eldense 2–0. The model had made a win for Las Palmas its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alex Suárez 90+5' for Las Palmas, Jefte Betancor Sanchez 90+8' for Las Palmas. On expected goals it finished 1.22–0.39.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Las Palmas a 6.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 4.6% after a win, 7.2% after a draw, 8.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
For Eldense the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 19.9% going in: 15.2% after a win, 19.1% after a draw, 21.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.8%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Las Palmas v Eldense has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Las Palmas's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Las Palmas win47%▲ +8
- Draw27%=
- Eldense win26%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.