16 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Lahti vs KuPS Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Lahden Stadion, Lahti
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Lahti 1-2 KuPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Lahti, 41% draw, 34% KuPS — fair odds of 4.00, 2.44 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lahti0%Draw2%KuPS98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽O. Koskinenassist: M. Sarr
2'
11'
⚽T. Jyryassist: B. Armah
17'
⚽J. Luyeye-Lutumbaassist: B. Armah
José Müller
51'
66'
🔁B. Armahout: S. Touray
66'
🔁C. Antwiout: G. Engvall
🔁J. Mullerout: V. Vehkonen
69'
🔁O. Koskinenout: D. Heikkinen
69'
🔁Martim Augustoout: A. Belabid
69'
70'
🔁T. Jyryout: P. Pennanen
70'
🔁P. Parzyszekout: J. J. Moreno Ciorciari
72'
Valentín Gasc
Romain Sans
81'
🔁Neemiasout: A. Lindholm
81'
🔁R. Yapiout: J. Ojanen
81'
87'
🔁S. Heiskanenout: B. Magassa
Yohan Cassubie
89'

Line-ups

Lahti 4-3-3
  • 12A. HakalaG
  • 27R. YapiD
  • 5N. Gianini DantasD
  • 4J. MullerD
  • 3R. SansD
  • 8C. MontielM
  • 18Y. CassubieM
  • 10O. KoskinenM
  • 77M. SarrF
  • 19NeemiasF
  • 11Martim AugustoF
Substitutes
  • 31O. MaukonenG
  • 6V. VehkonenD
  • 25T. InkinenD
  • 14E. AnderssonM
  • 9A. LindholmF
  • 28A. KabashiM
  • 7D. HeikkinenM
  • 20J. OjanenM
  • 17A. BelabidF
Coach: Goncalo Pereira
KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 23A. LotjonenD
  • 33T. HamalainenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. R. GascM
  • 3S. HeiskanenM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 24B. ArmahD
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
Substitutes
  • 12H. RiihimakiG
  • 29A. Puukko
  • 28B. MagassaD
  • 17A. HeinonenM
  • 22S. TourayM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 11J. J. Moreno CiorciariF
  • 19C. KabuyeF
  • 9G. EngvallF
Coach: Miika Nuutinen

Form going into Lahti vs KuPS

Lahti

  • D0-0away to Inter Turku9 August 2026

KuPS

  • L1-2away to Universitatea Craiova13 August 2026
  • D1-1Turku PS9 August 2026
  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova6 August 2026
  • L0-2Sabah FA28 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Sabah FA21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Lahti229582619+732
1KuPS2212733823+1543

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lahti vs KuPS

  • 16 August 2026Lahti 1–2 KuPSVeikkausliiga
  • 23 May 2026KuPS 2–1 LahtiVeikkausliiga
  • 21 July 2024KuPS 1–0 LahtiVeikkausliiga
  • 27 April 2024Lahti 0–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
  • 16 March 2024Lahti 0–2 KuPSLeague Cup
  • 1 July 2023Lahti 3–4 KuPSVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: Lahti and KuPS

Lahti

  • Martim Ferreira3 goals1 assists

KuPS

  • J. Moreno5 goals
  • B. Armah3 goals
  • P. Pennanen2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.