17 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Brondby vs Sonderjyske Superliga prediction & result

Brondby
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Brondby 3-2 Sonderjyske.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Brondby, 26% draw, 23% Sonderjyske — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Brondby at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brondby97%Draw3%Sonderjyske0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Frokjaer-Jensenassist: M. Ejdum
18'
⚽M. Frokjaer-Jensenassist: M. Ejdum
30'
⚽O. Hyseniassist: O. Fenger
45'
🔁M. Ejdumout: M. Jensen
46'
🔁O. Fengerout: J. Ambaek
46'
46'
🔁D. Boisonout: D. L. Gretarsson
48'
Lirim Qamili
Luis Binks
57'
58'
🔁A. Oggesenout: T. Klysner
58'
🔁L. Qamiliout: I. Seydi
58'
⚽B. Tambedouassist: M. Soulas
🔁O. Hyseniout: F. Bundgaard
62'
64'
⚽M. Haidaraassist: S. Emini
🔁M. Younisout: S. Fukuda
71'
72'
🔁B. Tambedouout: M. Hoppe
77'
Matthew Hoppe
Mads Frøkjær
79'
82'
🔁J. Christensenout: A. Hoeg
🔁M. Frokjaer-Jensenout: D. Wass
83'
87'
Maxime Soulas
90+1'
Sefer Emini

Match stats — Brondby vs Sonderjyske

64%Possession36%
18Shots10
4On target5
10Corners1
1.38xG0.82

Goals against chances

Brondby3 from 1.38 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sonderjyske2 from 0.82 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Brondby 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. PentzG
  • 2O. VilladsenD
  • 30J. VanlerbergheD
  • 4L. BinksD
  • 27M. KohlertD
  • 99B. SliszM
  • 18M. EjdumM
  • 21M. YounisM
  • 29M. Frokjaer-JensenM
  • 7O. HyseniM
  • 51O. FengerF
Substitutes
  • 50W. Sonne SchmidG
  • 3C. OlivierD
  • 37R. CanutD
  • 10D. WassM
  • 42M. JensenM
  • 9P. MortensenF
  • 11F. BundgaardF
  • 38J. AmbaekF
  • 19S. FukudaF
Coach: Thomas Norgaard
Sonderjyske 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. BundgaardG
  • 22A. OggesenD
  • 25B. BjarnasonD
  • 12M. SoulasD
  • 23E. DuruD
  • 7S. EminiM
  • 33J. ChristensenM
  • 32D. BoisonM
  • 8M. HaidaraM
  • 26B. TambedouM
  • 15L. QamiliF
Substitutes
  • 1N. FloG
  • 4D. L. GretarssonD
  • 30G. WagnerD
  • 20T. KlysnerD
  • 28A. BergholtM
  • 17A. Hoeg
  • 14T. HaltvikF
  • 9M. HoppeF
  • 31I. Seydi
Coach: Fatah Abdirahman

Form going into Brondby vs Sonderjyske

Brondby

  • W2-0away to AC Horsens9 August 2026
  • W1-0Viborg2 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Aarhus25 July 2026

Sonderjyske

  • D0-0Viborg7 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Odense3 August 2026
  • L2-3FC Midtjylland26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Brondby84131214-213
12Sonderjyske8026819-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Brondby vs Sonderjyske

  • 17 August 2026Brondby 3–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
  • 26 April 2026Sonderjyske 3–0 BrondbySuperliga
  • 17 April 2026Brondby 6–0 SonderjyskeSuperliga
  • 23 February 2026Brondby 0–0 SonderjyskeSuperliga
  • 24 August 2025Sonderjyske 2–0 BrondbySuperliga
  • 24 November 2024Sonderjyske 2–2 BrondbySuperliga

Leading scorers: Brondby and Sonderjyske

Brondby

  • M. Frøkjær-Jensen2 goals1 assists

Sonderjyske

  • M. Haidara3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.