16 August 2026, 13:00 UTC

HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Bolt Arena, Helsinki
Full time3 – 0

Final score: HJK Helsinki 3-0 FF Jaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% HJK Helsinki, 27% draw, 41% FF Jaro — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FF Jaro at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HJK Helsinki99%Draw1%FF Jaro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Cicaleassist: M. Ylitolva
5'
⚽M. Borchersassist: M. Kirilov
9'
48'
Jesper Svenungsen Skau
🔁M. Gueyeout: J. Kallinen
60'
62'
🔁R. Vikstromout: V. Vuorinen
63'
🔁J. Myrevikout: A. Bjonback
⚽M. Kirilovassist: T. Pukki
68'
72'
Oliver Kass Kawo
🔁L. Montanoout: K. Simojoki
72'
🔁P. Mentuout: A. Ring
72'
🔁M. Borchersout: S. Haarala
72'
72'
🔁A. Sabriyeout: J. Vikstrom
78'
Adam Vidjeskog
🔁T. Pukkiout: L. Lappalainen
79'
81'
🔁F. O. Nessout: T. Soderstrom
81'
🔁O. Kass Kawoout: V. Lofs

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki 4-4-2
  • 44M. MarkovicG
  • 28M. YlitolvaD
  • 5A. NalloD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 17M. KirilovM
  • 32M. Gueye
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 7A. CicaleM
  • 9M. BorchersF
  • 20T. PukkiF
Substitutes
  • 1J. OstG
  • 12M. HaapanenG
  • 31M. BogicevicD
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 4A. RingM
  • 15J. KallinenM
  • 26L. LappalainenM
  • 29S. HaaralaF
Coach: Joonas Rantanen
FF Jaro 4-4-2
  • 1S. VitsG
  • 21J. MyrevikD
  • 7J. SkauD
  • 4M. OgungbaroD
  • 19F. O. NessD
  • 15R. VikstromF
  • 8O. Kass KawoM
  • 16A. VidjeskogM
  • 77A. SabriyeM
  • 22K. HardenM
  • 11H. SjogrellM
Substitutes
  • 31A. FinellG
  • 5A. BjonbackD
  • 20T. SoderstromD
  • 24V. LofsM
  • 17J. LaaksoM
  • 91V. VuorinenM
  • 18E. HolmangF
  • 27J. VikstromF
Coach: Jens Karlsson

Form going into HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro

HJK Helsinki

  • L0-2away to Motherwell13 August 2026
  • W1-0away to AC Oulu9 August 2026
  • D1-1Motherwell6 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Coleraine FC30 July 2026
  • W5-0Coleraine FC23 July 2026

FF Jaro

  • L1-3VPS8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3HJK Helsinki2211473627+937
11FF Jaro2236131844-2615

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro

  • 16 August 2026HJK Helsinki 3–0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
  • 13 June 2026FF Jaro 2–5 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
  • 2 July 2025HJK Helsinki 2–3 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
  • 11 May 2025FF Jaro 0–3 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
  • 13 September 2015FF Jaro 1–1 HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga
  • 22 June 2015HJK Helsinki 4–0 FF JaroVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and FF Jaro

HJK Helsinki

  • M. Borchers4 goals
  • T. Pukki3 goals2 assists

FF Jaro

  • H. Sjögrell5 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.