Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Grazer AK 2-1 Austria Lustenau.
Before kick-off the model made it 82% Grazer AK, 12% draw, 6% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 1.22, 8.33 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grazer AK at 82% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Cican StankovićG
- 82Beres OwusuD
- 2Donovan PinesD
- 3Ludwig Vraa-JensenD
- 28AndersonM
- 6Liam HermeshM
- 34Peter MichorlM
- 32Leon KlassenM
- 10Christian LichtenbergerF
- 11Mark GroßeF
- 25Alexander HofleitnerF
- 48Matthias GraggerD
- 7Anthony SmitsF
- 8Tobias KochM
- 1Jakob MeierhoferG
- 72Petar MarkovicD
- 30Christoph HasenhüttlD
- 17Souleyman MandeyM
- 70Nicky Fatayi Brown UgoM
- 9Daniel MadernerF
- 27Domenik SchierlG
- 7Fabian GmeinerD
- 31Matthias MaakD
- 29Niklas PertlwieserD
- 3Danilo SoaresD
- 8Dion KacuriM
- 11Dominik WeixelbraunM
- 20Lord AfrifaM
- 19Sacha DelayeM
- 24Seydou DiarraM
- 14Precious BenjaminF
- 39Antonio VerinacF
- 17Albin GashiF
- 9Lenn JastremskiF
- 30Phillip BohmG
- 26Lukas IbertsbergerD
- 15Chukwu EmmanuelD
- 18Robin VoisineD
- 23Pius GrabherM
- 61Haris IsmailcebiogluM
Form going into Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau
Grazer AK
- L0-3away to Lask Linz31 July 2026
Austria Lustenau
- D1-1Ried2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grazer AK | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 7 |
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau
- 8 August 2026Grazer AK 2–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 26 November 2021Grazer AK 0–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 25 July 2021Austria Lustenau 2–1 Grazer AK2. Liga
- 12 May 2021Grazer AK 2–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 11 December 2020Austria Lustenau 3–1 Grazer AK2. Liga
- 6 June 2020Grazer AK 1–1 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
Leading scorers: Grazer AK and Austria Lustenau
Grazer AK
- A. Hofleitner2 goals
Austria Lustenau
- D. Weixelbraun3 goals1 assists
- A. Verinac2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.