8 August 2026, 11:00 UTC

1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Osnabrück 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
Full time4 – 3

Final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 4-3 VfL Osnabrück.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% 1. FC Heidenheim, 20% draw, 28% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 1.92, 5.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Heidenheim99%Draw1%VfL Osnabrück0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽B. Zivzivadzeassist: M. Costly
10'
13'
I. Badjie
•B. Zivzivadze
16'
23'
⚽N. Wiemannassist: K. Faber
⚽M. Costlyassist: M. Honsak
29'
34'
⚽D. Kopaczassist: K. Faber
45'
F. Wagner
⚽J. Schoppnerassist: J. Fohrenbach
45+2'
O. Mhamdi
54'
🔁M. Honsakout: C. Conteh
59'
🔁O. Mhamdiout: M. Busch
59'
🔁C. Contehout: L. Kerber
66'
69'
🔁K. Faberout: T. Lesueur
80'
🔁I. Badjieout: L. Munst
80'
🔁D. Kopaczout: B. Riesselmann
80'
🔁F. Wagnerout: B. Henning
🔁A. Beckout: P. Hennrich
88'
🔁B. Zivzivadzeout: M. Breunig
88'
⚽M. Pieringerassist: M. Costly
89'
89'
🔁P. Kammerbauerout: L. Opitz
90+2'
⚽R. Meissner (pen)

Match stats — 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Osnabrück

53%Possession47%
20Shots26
6On target6
4Corners6
2.59xG1.93

Goals against chances

1. FC Heidenheim4 from 2.59 xGmore than the chances were worth
VfL Osnabrück3 from 1.93 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2
  • 1Frank FellerG
  • 22Oualid MhamdiD
  • 6Patrick MainkaD
  • 4Tim SierslebenD
  • 19Jonas FöhrenbachD
  • 24Marcel CostlyM
  • 21Adrian BeckM
  • 3Jan SchöppnerM
  • 17Mathias HonsakM
  • 11Budu ZivzivadzeF
  • 18Marvin PieringerF
Substitutes
  • 2Marnon BuschD
  • 10Christian ContehF
  • 20Luca KerberM
  • 8Paul HennrichM
  • 14Maximilian BreunigF
  • 33Thomas DähneG
  • 5Benedikt GimberD
  • 41Marko ZrilićM
  • 16Julian NiehuesM
Coach: Frank Schmidt
VfL Osnabrück 3-4-2-1
  • 32Jonas KrumreyG
  • 27Robin FabinskiD
  • 24Jannik MüllerD
  • 25Niklas WiemannD
  • 28Konrad FaberM
  • 26Fridolin WagnerM
  • 15Bjarke JacobsenM
  • 31Patrick KammerbauerM
  • 29David KopaczF
  • 10Ismail BadjieF
  • 11Robin MeißnerF
Substitutes
  • 23Tony LesueurF
  • 6Bryan HenningM
  • 8Leonhard MünstM
  • 22Bernd RiesselmannF
  • 19Leon OpitzM
  • 1Niklas SauterG
  • 4Joel Abu HannaD
  • 20Theo JanottaD
  • 17Luca RaimundF
Coach: Timo Schultz

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
31. FC Heidenheim54011210+212
10VfL Osnabrück5203811-36

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Osnabrück

  • 8 August 20261. FC Heidenheim 4–3 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
  • 20 February 2021VfL Osnabruck 1–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 25 October 2020FC Heidenheim 1–1 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
  • 22 December 2019FC Heidenheim 3–1 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
  • 27 July 2019VfL Osnabruck 1–3 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 3 May 2014VfL Osnabruck 1–0 FC Heidenheim3. Liga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Osnabrück

1. FC Heidenheim

  • J. Schöppner3 goals

VfL Osnabrück

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.