SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SV Darmstadt 98 2-2 Holstein Kiel.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% SV Darmstadt 98, 19% draw, 20% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 1.64, 5.26 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Darmstadt 98 at 61% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Marcel SchuhenG
- 28Christopher LannertD
- 6Patric PfeifferD
- 20Aleksandar VukotićD
- 3Florian KleinhanslD
- 17Kai KlefischM
- 16Hiroki AkiyamaM
- 7Noah WeißhauptM
- 41Lance DuijvestijnM
- 44Yosuke FurukawaM
- 19Fynn LakenmacherF
- 10Nicolas VerkooijenM
- 9Lee Ho-jaeF
- 48Manolo MerxF
- 18Raoul PetrettaD
- 11Ibrahim El KadiriF
- 30Alexander BrunstG
- 49Yannik LührsD
- 22Lars KehlM
- 23Carlo SickingerM
- 1Timon WeinerG
- 32Hiroki SekineD
- 13Ivan NekićD
- 26David ZecD
- 40Leon ParduziD
- 28Jonas MeffertM
- 11Alexander BernhardssonM
- 8Guillermo BalziM
- 15Kasper DavidsenM
- 20Adrián KaprálikM
- 19Phil HarresF
- 10Jonas TherkelsenM
- 17Faride AlidouF
- 6Marko IvezićD
- 27Ikem UgohM
- 41Lio RothenhagenG
- 30Tayar TasdelenM
- 43Till WieseM
- 22Moritz ReimersM
- 44Mark Richter MonserratM
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel
- 8 August 2026SV Darmstadt 98 2–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 7 March 2026SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 4 October 2025Holstein Kiel 1–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 6 January 2024SV Darmstadt 98 1–2 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
- 30 April 2023Holstein Kiel 0–3 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 21 October 2022SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel
SV Darmstadt 98
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Holstein Kiel
- P. Harres3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.