9 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg Bundesliga prediction & result

Lavanttal-Arena, Wolfsberg
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Wolfsberger AC, 23% draw, 28% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Wolfsberger AC at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wolfsberger AC5%Draw91%Red Bull Salzburg4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Aboubacar Camara
46'
🔁M. Kjaergaardout: A. Barry
Cheick Mamadou Diabate
52'
57'
🔁A. Camaraout: D. Redzic
57'
🔁T. Drexlerout: V. Zabransky
🔁D. Avdijajout: O. Mamageishvili
64'
🔁M. Schabauerout: S. Karamoko
64'
⚽G. Vrioniassist: F. Wohlmuth
67'
68'
🔁S. Kitanoout: Y. Vertessen
Marco Sulzner
69'
🔁A. Schwarzout: R. Renner
75'
🔁E. Agyemanout: T. Schriebl
75'
Thorsten Schriebl
78'
79'
⚽Y. Vertessenassist: K. Boma
83'
🔁K. Konateout: L. Morgalla
🔁G. Vrioniout: L. Hassler
85'
René Renner
90+6'
Otar Mamageishvili
90+6'

Match stats — Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg

33%Possession67%
11Shots18
1On target10
4Corners8
0.93xG3.52

Goals against chances

Wolfsberger AC1 from 0.93 xGabout what the chances were worth
Red Bull Salzburg1 from 3.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wolfsberger AC 3-4-2-1
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 6R. BehounekD
  • 15C. DiabateD
  • 37N. WimmerD
  • 31F. WohlmuthM
  • 30M. SulznerM
  • 34E. AgyemanM
  • 11A. SchwarzM
  • 17M. Schabauer
  • 10D. AvdijajF
  • 9G. VrioniF
Substitutes
  • 1L. GutlbauerG
  • 7L. HasslerM
  • 35M. KitzD
  • 8S. PiesingerM
  • 32M. PinkF
  • 77R. RennerD
  • 20T. SchrieblM
  • 19O. MamageishviliM
  • 49S. KaramokoF
Coach: Thomas Silberberger
Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1
  • 52C. ZawieschitzkyG
  • 18N. VeratschnigD
  • 44K. BomaD
  • 21T. DrexlerD
  • 13F. KratzigD
  • 15B. MazurekM
  • 14M. KjaergaardM
  • 8S. KitanoM
  • 19K. KonateM
  • 33A. Camara
  • 9H. TabakovicF
Substitutes
  • 1C. FruchtlG
  • 31D. SchmidD
  • 39L. MorgallaD
  • 11Y. VertessenF
  • 32A. BarryM
  • 23D. RedzicF
  • 4J. MellbergD
  • 47V. ZabranskyD
  • 29Y. Sulbaran
Coach: Danny Rohl

Form going into Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg

Wolfsberger AC

  • W3-0Austria Vienna2 August 2026

Red Bull Salzburg

  • W1-0Pafos6 August 2026
  • W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Wolfsberger AC612369-35
3Red Bull Salzburg6420154+1114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg

  • 9 August 2026Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
  • 1 February 2026Wolfsberger AC 0–1 Red Bull SalzburgCup
  • 14 December 2025Red Bull Salzburg 2–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
  • 13 September 2025Wolfsberger AC 3–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
  • 27 April 2025Wolfsberger AC 2–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
  • 23 April 2025Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga

Leading scorers: Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg

Wolfsberger AC

  • G. Vrioni4 goals

Red Bull Salzburg

  • K. Konaté4 goals
  • H. Tabaković3 goals
  • Y. Vertessen2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.