8 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result

Stadion Hartberg, Hartberg
Full time0 – 2

Final score: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.

Before kick-off the model made it 17% TSV Hartberg, 19% draw, 64% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 5.88, 5.26 and 1.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sturm Graz at 64% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

TSV Hartberg0%Draw1%Sturm Graz99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Konstantin Schopp
37'
Konstantin Schopp
60'
Konstantin Schopp
60'
62'
🔁G. Mamageishviliout: S. Seidl
62'
🔁L. Balboout: E. Soglo
62'
🔁S. Wlodarczykout: N. Weiper
🔁A. Gattermayerout: J. Drew
64'
69'
⚽N. Weiperassist: S. Seidl
🔁Y. Diarraout: O. Lukic
71'
🔁M. Hoffmannout: A. Urrutia
71'
78'
🔁S. Jattaout: A. Kayombo
81'
⚽N. Weiperassist: S. Seidl
🔁T. Kainzout: N. Feldhofer
82'
🔁H. Coulibalyout: C. Onuoha
82'
84'
🔁J. Heilout: P. Koller
89'
•Luca Weinhandl
90+4'
Albert Vallci

Match stats — TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz

46%Possession54%
6Shots20
2On target5
3Corners9
0.28xG1.48

Goals against chances

TSV Hartberg0 from 0.28 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sturm Graz2 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

TSV Hartberg 5-3-2
  • 91A. PecsiG
  • 18F. WilfingerD
  • 14P. KomposchD
  • 19L. SpendlhoferD
  • 4B. MarkusD
  • 6H. CoulibalyD
  • 23T. KainzM
  • 27K. SchoppM
  • 5Y. DiarraM
  • 22M. Hoffmann
  • 7A. GattermayerF
Substitutes
  • 21L. MaricG
  • 28F. GerstlM
  • 10O. LukicM
  • 95N. FeldhoferM
  • 17J. KarnerM
  • 11J. DrewF
  • 16M. DalpiazD
  • 70C. OnuohaF
  • 9A. UrrutiaF
Coach: Markus Schopp
Sturm Graz 4-2-3-1
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 2J. MitchellD
  • 27L. BalboD
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 20S. JattaM
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 17S. WlodarczykF
Substitutes
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 44N. WeiperF
  • 11A. KayomboF
  • 23A. MalicD
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz

TSV Hartberg

  • L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg1 August 2026

Sturm Graz

  • L0-2away to Fenerbahçe5 August 2026
  • D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Heart of Midlothian28 July 2026
  • W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6TSV Hartberg6213710-37
4Sturm Graz632186+211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz

  • 8 August 2026TSV Hartberg 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 10 May 2026TSV Hartberg 2–4 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 12 April 2026Sturm Graz 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 30 November 2025TSV Hartberg 0–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 28 September 2025Sturm Graz 1–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 9 November 2024TSV Hartberg 1–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga

Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz

TSV Hartberg

  • C. Hoffmann2 goals1 assists

Sturm Graz

  • N. Weiper2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.