9 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Ried vs Rapid Vienna Bundesliga prediction & result

Innviertel Arena, Ried
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Ried 1-2 Rapid Vienna.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Ried, 24% draw, 41% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rapid Vienna at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ried0%Draw5%Rapid Vienna95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽J. Horn
🔁E. E. Aisowierenout: P. Sissoko
60'
🔁J. Nasraweout: T. Lund-Jensen
60'
66'
🔁Y. Demirout: N. Wurmbrand
66'
🔁P. Dahlout: M. Haidara
67'
🔁T. Adamsenout: M. Tilio
72'
🔁N. Bajliczout: R. Amane
⚽S. Schwabassist: A. Bajic
74'
77'
⚽M. Haidaraassist: N. Hedl
🔁O. Sorgout: M. Rasner
82'
Martin Rasner
86'
86'
Bendegúz Bolla
90+1'
🔁E. Karaout: L. Schaub

Match stats — Ried vs Rapid Vienna

46%Possession54%
18Shots12
9On target3
3Corners4
1.3xG1.63

Goals against chances

Ried1 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rapid Vienna2 from 1.63 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ried 3-4-1-2
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 4L. MalicsekD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 12A. BajicM
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 7O. SorgM
  • 10J. NasraweF
  • 47E. E. AisowierenF
  • 11J. RhodesF
Substitutes
  • 77F. WimmerG
  • 25D. KirnbauerD
  • 26J. MayerM
  • 5D. RadonjicD
  • 9P. Sissoko
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 19T. Lund-JensenM
  • 33A. GoigingerD
Coach: Mario Despotovic
Rapid Vienna 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. HedlG
  • 77B. BollaD
  • 4J. M. SchollerD
  • 6S. Raux-YaoD
  • 38J. HornD
  • 18M. SeidlM
  • 30N. BajliczM
  • 22Y. DemirM
  • 8T. AdamsenM
  • 10P. DahlM
  • 9E. KaraF
Substitutes
  • 25P. GartlerG
  • 21L. SchaubM
  • 55N. CvetkovicD
  • 23J. AuerD
  • 15N. WurmbrandF
  • 29R. AmaneM
  • 7M. TilioF
  • 17T. GulliksenM
  • 43M. HaidaraF
Coach: Johannes Thorup

Form going into Ried vs Rapid Vienna

Ried

  • D1-1away to Austria Lustenau2 August 2026

Rapid Vienna

  • W4-1away to Paide6 August 2026
  • W1-0SCR Altach2 August 2026
  • W6-2FC Santa Coloma29 July 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Santa Coloma23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Ried6123711-45
2Rapid Vienna6501187+1115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ried vs Rapid Vienna

  • 9 August 2026Ried 1–2 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 25 May 2026Rapid Vienna 3–0 RiedBundesliga
  • 22 May 2026Ried 2–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 31 January 2026Ried 3–0 Rapid ViennaCup
  • 6 December 2025Rapid Vienna 1–2 RiedBundesliga
  • 26 October 2025Ried 0–2 Rapid ViennaBundesliga

Leading scorers: Ried and Rapid Vienna

Ried

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Rapid Vienna

  • T. Adamsen4 goals1 assists
  • P. Dahl3 goals
  • Y. Demir2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.